新能源及有色金属日报：供应量维持高位，工业硅多晶硅基本面表现一般-20251023

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon are generally weak with high supply and consumption - side pressure. For industrial silicon, the current fundamentals are weak but may improve with potential policy support. For polysilicon, the market is affected by policies and weak reality, and is expected to maintain wide - range oscillations in the short term while being suitable for long - term low - position long - order layouts [3][7]. 3. Summary by Related Content Industrial Silicon - Market Analysis: On October 22, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2511 opened at 8515 yuan/ton and closed at 8485 yuan/ton, with a change of 5 yuan/ton (0.06%) from the previous settlement. The main contract held 96,554 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 48,738, a decrease of 113 from the previous day. Spot prices were stable, but due to increased northwest production and no southwest reduction in October, short - term inventory increased significantly, putting pressure on the fundamentals [1]. - Consumption - side Situation: Organic silicon DMC quotes were 11,100 - 11,500 yuan/ton. Supported by the supply - side, domestic DMC prices were expected to rise slightly last week, but there was a possibility of weakening this week depending on new orders and downstream demand [2]. - Strategy: Spot prices are stable, and silicon factories are reluctant to sell at low prices. The fundamentals are currently weak, but southwest production will decrease at the end of October. The industrial silicon futures are affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. It is recommended for short - term range operations, and long positions can be taken at low prices for contracts during the dry season [3]. Polysilicon - Market Analysis: On October 22, 2025, the polysilicon futures main contract 2511 fluctuated. It opened at 50,700 yuan/ton and closed at 50,310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.55% from the previous day. The main contract held 49,016 lots, and 100,492 lots were traded. Spot prices were stable. Manufacturer and silicon wafer inventories increased, with polysilicon inventory at 25.30 (a 5.33% month - on - month increase) and silicon wafer inventory at 17.31GW (a 3.16% month - on - month increase). Weekly polysilicon production was 31,000 tons (no change), and silicon wafer production was 14.35GW (an 11.85% month - on - month increase) [4]. - Related Product Prices: Silicon wafer, battery cell, and component prices remained stable. Polysilicon production is expected to increase in October and decrease in November in the southwest region [6]. - Strategy: Consumption - side support is weak, with large inventory pressure and high supply in October. The November warehouse receipts cancellation will suppress the market. The market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and is expected to maintain wide - range oscillations in the short term. For the long - term, it is suitable to lay out long positions at low prices. Short - term range operations are recommended, with the November main contract oscillating between 49,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton and the December contract between 51,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [7].