Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of major futures contracts on October 23, 2025, and also gives the expected trend for the whole month of October 2025 for some futures contracts [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Outlook - Stock Index Futures: On October 23, 2025, it is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. IF2512 has resistance at 4592 and 4621 points, support at 4515 and 4498 points; IH2512 has resistance at 3019 and 3034 points, support at 2980 and 2972 points; IC2512 has resistance at 7054 and 7100 points, support at 6925 and 6871 points; IM2512 has resistance at 7211 and 7257 points, support at 7095 and 7059 points [2]. - Treasury Bond Futures: - Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures T2512: On October 23, 2025, it is likely to have a strong and wide - range fluctuation, with resistance at 108.26 and 108.32 yuan, support at 108.00 and 107.95 yuan [2][35]. - Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures TL2512: On October 23, 2025, it is likely to have a strong and wide - range fluctuation, with resistance at 116.0 and 116.5 yuan, support at 115.2 and 115.0 yuan [2][39]. - Precious Metal Futures: - Gold Futures AU2512: On October 23, 2025, it is likely to have a weak and wide - range fluctuation, and will test the support levels of 925.0 and 917.9 yuan/gram, with resistance at 937.8 and 950.0 yuan/gram [2][42]. - Silver Futures AG2512: On October 23, 2025, it is likely to fluctuate weakly and will test the support levels of 11210 and 10937 yuan/kilogram, with resistance at 11404 and 11483 yuan/kilogram [3][50]. - Base Metal Futures: - Copper Futures CU2512: On October 23, 2025, it is likely to fluctuate and consolidate, with support at 85000 and 84300 yuan/ton, resistance at 85400 and 85600 yuan/ton [3][52]. - Aluminum Futures AL2512: On October 23, 2025, it is likely to fluctuate strongly, with resistance at 21200 and 21300 yuan/ton, support at 21080 and 21040 yuan/ton [3][59]. - Alumina Futures AO2601: On October 23, 2025, it is likely to fluctuate weakly and will test the support levels of 2800 and 2786 yuan/ton, with resistance at 2836 and 2856 yuan/ton [3][63]. - Carbonate Lithium Futures LC2601: On October 23, 2025, it is likely to fluctuate strongly and will attack the resistance levels of 77800 and 79200 yuan/ton, with support at 76700 and 76000 yuan/ton [3][68]. - Building Material Futures: - Rebar Futures RB2601: On October 23, 2025, it is likely to fluctuate and consolidate, with resistance at 3076 and 3090 yuan/ton, support at 3056 and 3034 yuan/ton [4][70]. - Hot - rolled Coil Futures HC2601: On October 23, 2025, it is likely to fluctuate and consolidate, with resistance at 3260 and 3280 yuan/ton, support at 3229 and 3204 yuan/ton [4][75]. - Iron Ore Futures I2601: On October 23, 2025, it is likely to have a wide - range fluctuation, with resistance at 778 and 780 yuan/ton, support at 767 and 762 yuan/ton [4][77]. - Coking Coal Futures JM2601: On October 23, 2025, it is likely to fluctuate strongly, with resistance at 1227 and 1239 yuan/ton, support at 1204 and 1187 yuan/ton [4][82]. - Glass Futures FG601: On October 23, 2025, it is likely to have a wide - range fluctuation, with support at 1072 and 1060 yuan/ton, resistance at 1101 and 1110 yuan/ton [4][85]. - Soda Ash Futures SA601: On October 23, 2025, it is likely to have a wide - range fluctuation, with resistance at 1230 and 1250 yuan/ton, support at 1200 and 1190 yuan/ton [4][89]. - Energy Futures: - Crude Oil Futures SC2512: On October 23, 2025, it is likely to fluctuate strongly and will attack the resistance levels of 453 and 459 yuan/barrel, with support at 445 and 441 yuan/barrel [4][93]. - Fuel Oil Futures FU2601: On October 23, 2025, it is likely to fluctuate strongly and will attack the resistance levels of 2720 and 2752 yuan/ton, support at 2680 and 2660 yuan/ton [4][97]. - Chemical Futures: - PTA Futures TA601: On October 23, 2025, it is likely to fluctuate strongly, with resistance at 4510 and 4530 yuan/ton, support at 4456 and 4434 yuan/ton [5][98]. - PVC Futures V2601: On October 23, 2025, it is likely to fluctuate strongly and will attack the resistance levels of 4750 and 4770 yuan/ton, support at 4688 and 4670 yuan/ton [7][100]. - Methanol Futures MA601: On October 23, 2025, it is likely to fluctuate and consolidate, with support at 2250 and 2233 yuan/ton, resistance at 2272 and 2281 yuan/ton [7][103]. - Agricultural Futures: - Soybean Meal Futures M2601: On October 23, 2025, it is likely to fluctuate strongly and will attack the resistance levels of 2915 and 2938 yuan/ton, support at 2878 and 2868 yuan/ton [7][105]. - Palm Oil Futures P2601: On October 23, 2025, it is likely to fluctuate weakly and will test the support levels of 9072 and 9000 yuan/ton, resistance at 9180 and 9200 yuan/ton [7][107]. - Natural Rubber Futures RU2601: On October 23, 2025, it is likely to fluctuate strongly and will attack the resistance levels of 15320 and 15500 yuan/ton, support at 15120 and 15050 yuan/ton [7][110]. Macro - news and Trading Tips - US President Trump expects to reach a good trade agreement with Chinese leaders during the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting next week, but the meeting may be cancelled. The Chinese Foreign Ministry responds that the two leaders maintain close communication [8]. - Chinese Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao meets with Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury, emphasizing continued cooperation and solving Airbus' problems in China [8]. - The National Bureau of Statistics releases September unemployment data by age group, with the unemployment rate for 16 - 24 - year - olds at 17.7%, 25 - 29 - year - olds at 7.2%, and 30 - 59 - year - olds at 3.9% [8]. - Guangdong Province releases an action plan for AI - empowered high - quality development of the manufacturing industry, aiming to build a global "AI + Manufacturing" integration development demonstration area [8]. - As of October 21, the US federal government debt exceeds $38 trillion for the first time, just over two months after reaching $37 trillion in mid - August [9]. - The US government shutdown lasts for 22 days, becoming the second - longest in history, with a deadlock over expiring medical subsidies [9]. - Trump cancels a meeting with Putin in Budapest. The US sanctions Russia's largest oil producer [9]. - The EU approves the 19th round of sanctions against Russia, including a ban on importing Russian LNG [9]. - Japanese Prime Minister Kashiwa Sanae orders a new round of economic measures, with a scale possibly exceeding 13.9 trillion yen last year [9]. Commodity Futures - related Information - On October 22, WTI crude oil futures rose 3.74% to $59.38/barrel, Brent crude oil futures rose 4.94% to $64.35/barrel, driven by expected US sanctions on Russia and a decrease in US EIA crude oil inventory [10]. - On October 22, international precious metal futures generally rose. COMEX gold futures rose 0.18% to $4116.60/ounce, COMEX silver futures rose 1.00% to $48.18/ounce, supported by EU sanctions on Russia, Fed's relaxation of bank capital requirements, and US fiscal policy uncertainty [10]. - In September, global physical gold ETFs had the largest single - month inflow on record, driving the total inflow in Q3 to a record $26 billion. By the end of Q3, the total AUM of global gold ETFs increased to $472 billion, and the total holdings increased 6% to 3838 tons, only 2% lower than the historical peak [10]. - On October 22, most London base metals rose. LME zinc rose 1.05% to $3019.50/ton, LME aluminum rose 0.88% to $2805.50/ton, LME lead rose 0.50% to $1995.00/ton, LME copper rose 0.33% to $10658.50/ton, LME tin was flat at $35400.00/ton, and LME nickel fell 0.23% to $15140.00/ton [11]. - Vale's Q3 iron ore production was 94.4 million tons, a 3.8% year - on - year increase, the highest since Q4 2018 [12]. - On October 22, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1245, down 74 basis points from the previous trading day, and the night - session closed at 7.1240. The central parity rate was 7.0954, down 24 basis points [12]. - On October 22, the US dollar index fell 0.06% to 98.91. Non - US currencies showed mixed performance. The offshore RMB against the US dollar rose 11 basis points to 7.1257 [12]. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - Stock Index Futures: On October 22, the major stock index futures contracts showed different trends. IF2512 had a slight decline, IH2512 had a slight increase, IC2512 and IM2512 had slight declines. The short - term downward pressure on some contracts increased, and the upward momentum of some was weak [12][13][14]. - Treasury Bond Futures: On October 22, the 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond futures contracts had different trends. The short - term rebound momentum of the 10 - year contract weakened, and the 30 - year contract continued to rebound weakly [34][38]. - Precious Metal Futures: On October 22 and during the night - session, gold and silver futures contracts showed a weak trend, with increased short - term downward pressure [40][49]. - Base Metal Futures: On October 22, copper, aluminum, and other base metal futures contracts showed different trends, with some having weak upward momentum and some continuing to rebound [52][58]. - Building Material Futures: On October 22, rebar, hot - rolled coil, and other building material futures contracts generally rebounded, with increased short - term upward momentum [70][75]. - Energy Futures: On October 22, crude oil and fuel oil futures contracts showed a strong upward trend, with continued short - term upward momentum [93][97]. - Chemical Futures: On October 22, PTA, PVC, and other chemical futures contracts generally rebounded, with different short - term trends [97][100]. - Agricultural Futures: On October 22, soybean meal and palm oil futures contracts showed a downward trend, with increased short - term downward pressure, while natural rubber futures contracts fluctuated and consolidated [105][107][110].
股指期货将震荡整理，黄金期货将偏弱宽幅震荡，白银期货将偏弱震荡，焦煤、原油、豆粕、天然橡胶期货将偏强震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-10-23 03:07