光大期货金融期货日报-20251023

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Index futures: Bullish [1] - Treasury bond futures: Sideways [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Index futures: The A - share market closed down with fluctuations yesterday. The dividend sector rose, while the technology sector pulled back. The Wind All - A index dropped 0.38% with a trading volume of 1.69 trillion yuan. The strategic focus on science and technology for national development remains unchanged in the long - term, and expectations for related themes are still optimistic. Uncertainties mainly come from the US domestic debt pressure and trade policy trends. Some domestic securities firms' adjustment of margin conversion ratios for certain stocks may affect short - term liquidity. The large discount in the futures market reflects strong hedging demand, and the low implied volatility of options shows a wait - and - see attitude. Volatility is expected to rise this week, and option double - buy or ratio spread strategies can be considered [1]. - Treasury bond futures: Yesterday, treasury bond futures closed with gains. The central bank conducted 138.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 94.7 billion yuan. Economic data shows a weak recovery. The central bank's support has eased the capital situation, and the escalation of the Sino - US tariff war has increased risk - aversion sentiment, causing treasury bonds to perform strongly. However, the central bank did not restart treasury bond trading in September, reducing expectations of monetary policy interest rate cuts. With the warming of the economy and the increase of quasi - fiscal tools, treasury bonds lack the impetus for significant upward movement [1][2] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Price Changes - Index futures: On October 22, 2025, IH was at 3,005.6 (up 0.8 or 0.03% from the previous day), IF was at 4,563.4 (down 14.2 or - 0.31%), IC was at 7,011.6 (down 41.2 or - 0.58%), and IM was at 7,163.2 (down 19.6 or - 0.27%) [3]. - Stock indices: On October 22, 2025, the Shanghai Composite 50 Index was at 3,010.1 (up 2.8 or 0.09%), the CSI 300 Index was at 4,592.6 (down 15.3 or - 0.33%), the CSI 500 Index was at 7,128.5 (down 57.1 or - 0.80%), and the CSI 1000 Index was at 7,312.2 (down 31.8 or - 0.43%) [3]. - Treasury bond futures: On October 22, 2025, TS was at 102.36 (down 0.014 or - 0.01%), TF was at 105.74 (up 0.02 or 0.02%), T was at 108.15 (unchanged), and TL was at 115.61 (up 0.02 or 0.02%) [3]. 3.2 Market News - The China Securities Investment Fund Association is about to release a draft for soliciting opinions on the rules for the performance comparison benchmarks of public funds. Multiple fund managers have submitted a batch of indices for potential use as performance comparison benchmarks, but the regulatory authorities are cautious about the number of indices included in the actual benchmark library [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis 3.3.1 Index Futures - The report presents the historical price trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the historical basis trends of these contracts [6][7][9]. 3.3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the historical price trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, the historical yields of treasury bond cash bonds, the historical basis trends of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures, the historical inter - period spreads of different - term treasury bond futures, the historical spreads between different - term treasury bond futures, and historical capital interest rates [13][14][16][19]. 3.3.3 Exchange Rates - The report includes the historical trends of the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB, the euro against the RMB, the 1 - month and 3 - month forward exchange rates of the US dollar and euro against the RMB, the US dollar index, the euro against the US dollar, the British pound against the US dollar, and the US dollar against the Japanese yen [23][24][27][30].