光大期货能化商品日报-20251023

Report Industry Investment Rating All the varieties in the report are rated as "oscillating" [1][2][4][6][7] Core Viewpoints The report analyzes multiple energy and chemical commodities, including their price movements, market supply - demand situations, and influencing factors. Most commodities are expected to oscillate in the short - term due to various factors such as geopolitical events, supply - demand changes, and cost fluctuations [1][2][4]. Summary by Directory Research Views - Crude Oil: On Wednesday, WTI December contract rose $1.26 to $58.50/barrel (2.18% increase), Brent December contract rose $1.27 to $62.59/barrel (2.07% increase), and SC2512 rose 7.3 yuan/barrel to 449.1 yuan/barrel (1.65% increase). US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories decreased last week. Geopolitical factors, such as Trump's remarks on Russia and US - India trade progress, may drive up short - term price volatility [1]. - Fuel Oil: On Wednesday, the main fuel oil contracts FU2601 and LU2512 rose. In September 2025, China's bonded marine fuel oil imports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year, while exports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The Asian low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil markets are under pressure due to weak demand and sufficient supply [2]. - Asphalt: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract BU2601 rose. This week, the social inventory rate decreased slightly, the refinery inventory increased slightly, and the plant operating rate increased slightly. Terminal demand is weak, and high supply may suppress prices [2]. - Polyester: TA601, EG2601, and PX futures rose on Wednesday. Some MEG and refinery units have maintenance plans. Korean PX exports increased. Polyester supply is sufficient, and downstream demand provides some support. The polyester chain follows cost fluctuations [4]. - Rubber: On Wednesday, the main rubber contracts showed little change. The EU's policy implementation for small and medium - sized enterprises is postponed. Some rubber varieties have tight liquidity, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [4][6]. - Methanol: On Wednesday, methanol prices were reported. Domestic and overseas supply has returned to a high level, but future Iranian production growth is limited. Port sanctions may reduce future arrivals. It is recommended to consider long - methanol and short - polyolefin strategies and inter - month positive spread strategies [6]. - Polyolefins: On Wednesday, polyolefin prices and production margins were reported. Short - term supply will remain high, and demand growth will slow down. Crude oil rebound supports prices, but the fundamentals drive is weakening, and prices are expected to oscillate [6][7]. - Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC): On Wednesday, PVC prices in different regions changed little. Supply - demand pressure is high, and exports are affected by policies. The price has a need for phased repair, but the rebound is limited by high inventories [7]. Daily Data Monitoring This part provides the spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes for various energy and chemical commodities on October 23, 2025, as well as the percentage of the latest basis rate in historical data [8]. Market News - The US EIA reported that last week, US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories decreased. Analysts believe that oil demand is strong, and there is no sign of crude oil surplus in the US [13]. - The US Treasury imposed sanctions on Russian oil companies, and Trump denied media reports about allowing Ukraine to use long - range missiles against Russia [13]. Chart Analysis - Main Contract Prices: It shows the historical closing prices of main contracts for multiple energy and chemical commodities from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, LPG, etc. [15][16][17] - Main Contract Basis: It presents the historical basis data of main contracts for various commodities, such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt [30][34][35] - Inter - period Contract Spreads: It shows the historical spreads of different contracts for multiple commodities, like fuel oil, asphalt, and PTA [44][46][49] - Inter - commodity Spreads: It includes the historical spreads and ratios between different commodities, such as crude oil's internal - external spreads, fuel oil's high - low sulfur spreads [60][62][64] - Production Profits: It shows the historical production profits of some commodities, such as ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [69][70] Team Member Introduction - Zhong Meiyan: The assistant director and energy - chemical director of Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in futures derivatives research and multiple awards [75]. - Du Bingqin: An analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with in - depth industry research and many awards [76]. - Di Yilin: A rubber and polyester analyst, with relevant research achievements and awards [77]. - Peng Haibo: A methanol/PE/PP/PVC analyst, with experience in energy - chemical spot - futures trading and financial theory application [78].