新能源及有色金属日报：黑色系带动，不锈钢价格略有反弹-20251023

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - For the nickel market, due to high inventory and a persistent supply - surplus situation, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [3]. - For the stainless steel market, with weak downstream demand recovery, inventory accumulation, and weakening cost support, stainless steel prices are expected to maintain an oscillating and weakening trend [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - Futures: On October 22, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2512 opened at 121,180 yuan/ton and closed at 121,380 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.11% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 73,851 (+13,460) lots, and the open interest was 121,311 (+5,022) lots. The main contract changed to 2512, showing an oscillating and declining pattern. Fed officials' hawkish signals strengthened the expectation of a continuous high - interest - rate environment, and the stronger US dollar index pressured LME nickel [1]. - Nickel Ore: A 1.4% nickel ore tender in the northern Philippines' Eramen mine was settled at FOB 43. There is a price difference between domestic supply and demand, and domestic factories are mostly on the sidelines. The rainy season in the Surigao mining area in the Philippines is approaching, and northern mines are mostly tendering for shipments. Iron plants are under cost pressure and have a price - pressing attitude towards nickel ore procurement. In Indonesia, the October (Phase II) domestic trade benchmark price increased by 0.06 - 0.11 US dollars, and the current mainstream premium is +26, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 27. Indonesian factories are actively purchasing raw materials recently [1]. - Spot: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 123,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was fair, and the spot premiums of each brand remained stable. Jinchuan nickel's premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to 2,500 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium remained unchanged at 400 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 26,953 (-73) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 250,878 (+402) tons [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations. - Other strategies (cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, options): None [3]. Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - Futures: On October 22, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2512 opened at 12,660 yuan/ton and closed at 12,710 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 99,210 (-26,868) lots, and the open interest was 179,530 (-4,171) lots. The contract followed the upward trend of the black sector, showing an oscillating and rising pattern. Stimulated by the decline in inventory in the afternoon, the price quickly rose to an intraday high of 12,730 yuan/ton but fell back slightly after failing to break through 12,750 yuan/ton [3]. - Spot: Due to the continuous upward exploration of futures prices in the past two days, downstream inquiries increased slightly, but actual trading was light, and market quotes remained low. The stainless steel price in Wuxi market was 13,000 (+0) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was 13,000 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 310 - 610 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.50 yuan/nickel point to 935.5 yuan/nickel point the previous day [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. - Other strategies (cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, options): None [4].