化工日报：成本端反弹，涤丝产销好转-20251023

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost side has rebounded, and the sales of polyester yarn have improved. The recent rise in crude oil prices is supported by the tense relationship between the US and Venezuela and the US plan to purchase crude oil to replenish the strategic reserve. The terminal demand has improved marginally due to the cooling weather, and the sales of polyester yarn have improved in the past two days [1]. - In the short term, the resonance of the macro - environment and fundamentals has put pressure on the fundamentals, and there is no obvious driving force for a rebound. In the PX segment, the PXN was $244/ton (a decrease of $2/ton compared to the previous period). The PX load in China has gradually recovered to a relatively high level, and with fewer maintenance plans in the fourth quarter and capacity expansion of some plants, the PXN remains under pressure. The downstream PTA plants have many maintenance plans after a significant compression of profits, and the supply - demand support for PX is limited. In the TA segment, the spot basis of the TA main contract is - 88 yuan/ton (no change compared to the previous period), the PTA spot processing fee is 79 yuan/ton (a decrease of 26 yuan/ton compared to the previous period), and the processing fee of the main contract on the disk is 299 yuan/ton (a decrease of 7 yuan/ton compared to the previous period). With the news of new plant commissioning, the processing fee has been further compressed. There are many near - term maintenance plans, and the inventory accumulation pressure is not large, but it is expected that new plants will be commissioned next week, and the inventory accumulation pressure will gradually appear after November. The long - term outlook is weak, the market spot supply is relatively abundant, and the cost - side support has weakened. The demand side is not in the peak season due to the impact of tariffs [2]. - The polyester operating rate is 91.4% (a decrease of 0.1% compared to the previous period). After the National Day, the market has calmed down, and filament yarn has accumulated inventory again. Terminal raw material procurement remains mostly cautious. Under high tariffs, the operating load of weaving and texturing has decreased again this week. The current inventory of polyester factories is not high, and it is expected that the average polyester load in October can still be maintained above 91%. There is still support from rigid demand due to the cooling weather. In the PF segment, the spot production profit is 298 yuan/ton (a decrease of 28 yuan/ton compared to the previous period). The load of direct - spun polyester staple fiber has remained stable. Due to the narrowing price difference in the market, the price advantage of factories has emerged, and inventory has decreased. The current factory inventory is low, and the inventory held by traders has also decreased. In the short term, the supply - demand situation of direct - spun polyester staple fiber is better than that of raw materials, and the processing margin has expanded to over 1200. In the PR segment, the spot processing fee for bottle chips is 546 yuan/ton (an increase of 16 yuan/ton compared to the previous period). The operating load of bottle chips has remained stable with a slight increase this week. Large factories generally maintain production cuts, and the inventory of polyester bottle chip factories has decreased. As the processing efficiency improves, attention should be paid to whether the operating load of plants will increase in the future and the progress of new capacity investment [3]. - For the unilateral strategy, PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated as neutral. In the PX segment, the PX load in China has gradually recovered to a relatively high level, and with fewer maintenance plans in the fourth quarter and capacity expansion of some plants, the supply - demand support for PX in the fourth quarter has weakened. In the TA segment, there are many near - term maintenance plans, and the inventory accumulation pressure is not large, but new plants are about to be commissioned, and the inventory accumulation pressure will gradually appear after November. The long - term outlook is weak, the market spot supply is relatively abundant, and the demand side is not in the peak season due to the impact of tariffs. Attention should be paid to the increase in PX maintenance due to profit compression and the Sino - US tariff game. In the PF segment, the demand for PF has improved slightly, and the factory inventory has decreased to a low level. In the short term, the supply - demand situation of direct - spun polyester staple fiber is better than that of raw materials, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate strongly. In the PR segment, the fundamentals of bottle chips have not changed much, maintenance continues, but the demand performance is average. It is expected that the spot processing fee for bottle chips will fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to raw material price fluctuations. For the cross - variety strategy, it is recommended to go long on the PF processing fee at low prices: PF2512 - 0.855PTA2601 - 0.332MEG2601. For the cross - period strategy, it is recommended to conduct a reverse spread for PX/PTA2601 - 2605 [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - Figures show the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [9][10][12] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures display the PX processing fee PXN (PX China CFR - naphtha Japan CFR), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [17][20] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures present the toluene US - Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [25][27] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the operating load of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX operating load in China and Asia [28][31][35] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures display the weekly social inventory of PTA, monthly social inventory of PX, total PTA warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [36][39][40] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures show the sales of filament yarn and short - fiber, polyester load, direct - spun filament yarn load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle chip load, filament DTY, FDY, and POY factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine operating rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing operating rate, filament FDY and POY profits [48][50][59] PF Detailed Data - Figures present the polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, original - recycled price difference (1.4D polyester staple fiber - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber), pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [68][78][82] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures show the polyester bottle chip load, bottle chip factory bottle chip inventory days, bottle chip spot processing fee, bottle chip export processing fee, bottle chip export profit, East China water bottle chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle chip price difference, bottle chip next - month spread (next month - base month), and bottle chip second - next - month spread (second next month - base month) [86][88][97]