宏观金融数据日报-20251023

Report Summary 1. Market Data Overview - DR001 closed at 1.32 with a 0.26 bp increase, DR007 at 1.43 with a 1.06 bp decrease, GC001 at 1.49 with a 39.00 bp increase, and GC007 at 1.49 with a 3.50 bp increase [3] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.59 with a 0.60 bp increase, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change, 1 - year国债 at 1.48 with a 0.50 bp increase, 5 - year国债 at 1.58 with a 0.25 bp increase, 10 - year国债 at 1.83 with a 0.50 bp decrease, and 10 - year美债 at 3.97 with a 1.40 bp decrease [3] - The central bank conducted 1382 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with 435 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 947 billion yuan [3] 2. LPR and Reverse Repurchase Maturing - In October 2025, the 1 - year LPR remained at 3.0% and the 5 - year above LPR at 3.5% [4] - This week, 7891 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, with 2538 billion, 910 billion, 435 billion, 2360 billion, and 1648 billion maturing from Monday to Friday respectively [4] 3. Stock Index Performance - The CSI 300 fell 0.33% to 4592.6, the SSE 50 rose 0.09% to 3010.1, the CSI 500 fell 0.8% to 7128.5, and the CSI 1000 fell 0.43% to 7312.2 [5] - Industry sectors had more decliners than gainers. Sectors with top gains included mining, wind power equipment, real estate services, construction machinery, and real estate development, while sectors with top losses included precious metals, jewelry, shipbuilding, coal, and gas [5] - The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was only 16679 billion yuan, a decrease of 2060 billion yuan from the previous day [5] 4. Market Outlook - The stock index continued to fluctuate yesterday, and the market trading volume further shrank to around 1.67 trillion yuan [6] - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee was held in Beijing from October 20 - 23, studying and formulating suggestions for the "15th Five - Year Plan." Specific sectors are expected to be boosted by policies [6] - US President Trump said that China and the US will reach an agreement on trade issues at the APEC Summit next week, but the two heads of state may not meet [6] - As the negative factors of trade friction gradually ease, the stock index is expected to return to the upward channel. Before November 1 when the 100% US tariff takes effect, the stock index is expected to fluctuate [6] 5. Futures Premium and Discount - IF premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 4.92%, 4.00%, 2.96%, and 3.06% respectively [7] - IH premium/discount rates were 2.63%, 0.94%, 0.40%, and 0.29% respectively [7] - IC premium/discount rates were 10.83%, 10.32%, 9.60%, and 9.50% respectively [7] - IM premium/discount rates were 12.48%, 12.82%, 12.23%, and 11.98% respectively [7]