黑色金属数据日报-20251023

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly and stably. Near - term, pay attention to the impact of domestic macro - meetings, and avoid directional speculative trading for now [2]. - The valuation of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is low, and the cost is supported. It is recommended to go long on dips [3][5]. - Coke and coking coal markets are in a state of oscillation. Unilateral speculative trading should be short - term, and mid - to long - term opportunities need to be awaited [6]. - There is no obvious driving force for iron ore. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On October 22, for far - month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3120 yuan/ton (up 14 yuan, 0.45%), HC2605 at 3259 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan, 0.62%), etc. For near - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3068 yuan/ton (up 18 yuan, 0.59%), HC2601 at 3247 yuan/ton (up 26 yuan, 0.81%) [1]. - The cross - month spreads, spreads/ratios/profits, and basis values of various varieties also had corresponding changes on October 22 [1]. Steel - Steel prices show narrow - range fluctuations, and the spot trading volume remains stable. The basis shrinks slightly, with mainly rigid - demand transactions. The market is waiting for the release of the "Silver October" peak - season demand, but the demand is not explosive [2]. - It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach or use an oscillation strategy for unilateral trading, and observe the opportunity to go long on the coil - rebar spread of the 01 contract when it is below 150 for arbitrage. For spot - futures arbitrage, take rolling profit - taking for reverse arbitrage and wait for positive arbitrage opportunities [2][8]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Short - term production profits are poor, and supply is difficult to increase. With the arrival of the heating season, coal prices are strong, and costs are supported. It is recommended to go long on dips [3][5]. Coke and Coking Coal - The spot market of coke and coking coal is in a state of oscillation. The second price increase of coke has not been responded to by steel mills. The supply - demand relationship is tight, but the downstream profit is weak, and price increases are difficult to pass on [6]. - It is recommended to take a temporary wait - and - see approach for unilateral trading [6][8]. Iron Ore - There is no significant impact on the short - term supply. High iron - water production may lead to over - supply of steel in the second half of the year. The expected increase in supply limits the price ceiling. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [7][8].