航运衍生品数据日报-20251023

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The shipping derivatives market shows a mixed performance with some indices rising and others falling. The EC market is generally on the rise. For the spot market, the European routes are in the year - end price - holding stage, and the first round of price - holding in late October has initially stopped the decline, and now it has entered the second round in early November. The strategy is to wait and see as the short - term peak - season price increase cannot be disproven, and the market is in a strong - biased oscillation [3][4][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shipping Derivatives Data - Freight Rate Index: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI) is at 1310, up 12.92% from the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is at 973, down 4.11%. SCFI - West US is up 31.88% to 1936, SCFIS - West US is down 1.60% to 862, SCFI - East US is up 16.35% to 2853, SCFI - Northwest Europe is up 7.21% to 1145, SCFIS - Northwest Europe is down 1.43% to 1031, and SCFI - Mediterranean is up 3.53% to 1613 [4] - Contract Data: For contracts such as EC2506, EC2608, etc., the changes are as follows: EC2506 is at 1353.3, down 0.57%; EC2608 is at 1474.8, down 0.55%; EC2510 is at 1136.6, up 0.14%; EC2512 is at 1788.3, up 1.07%; EC5602 is at 1582.9, up 0.95%; EC2604 is at 1171.4, up 0.65% [4] - Position Data: EC2606 position is 1399, down 23; EC2608 position is 1184; EC2410 position is 5583, down 789; EC2412 position is 29008, up 574; EC2602 position is 10664, up 431; EC2604 position is 14317, up 13 [4] - Monthly Spread: The 10 - 12 monthly spread is - 651.7, down 17.4; the 12 - 2 monthly spread is 205.4, up 4.1; the 12 - 4 monthly spread is 616.9, up 11.4 [4] Market News - Shipping companies are delaying their return to the Red Sea route. The resumption of the Suez Canal route is unlikely to be rapid in the short term due to factors such as complex route network adjustment, security risks in the Red Sea, and potential port congestion [4] - Egypt claims to have lost over $9 billion due to Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping [4] - The US may soon announce a tariff exemption list, and intense lobbying is expected [4] - The US Treasury Secretary plans to meet with China's Vice - Premier He Lifeng to prevent further escalation of Sino - US tariffs [4] - A White House envoy will go to the Middle East to promote the implementation of the Gaza agreement [4] - China's Minister Wang Wentao and the EU's Trade and Economic Security Commissioner held a video meeting and agreed to hold an "upgraded" China - EU export control dialogue mechanism meeting [4] Spot Market - In late October, Maersk quoted 1800 - 1900, HPL quoted 1900, CMA quoted 2100, etc. In early November, HPL quoted 2500, CMR quoted 2800, etc. The current sanctions have little impact on European routes, which are in the year - end price - holding stage. The first round of price - holding in late October has initially stopped the decline, and now it has entered the second round in early November [5] Strategy - The strategy is to wait and see as the short - term peak - season price increase cannot be disproven, and the market is in a strong - biased oscillation [6]