Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report On October 22, industrial silicon fluctuated with a slight upward trend, while polysilicon fluctuated weakly. The supply of industrial silicon is increasing, and the demand side faces the expectation of production control in the crystalline silicon industry. The overhaul of silicone and the limited supply of aluminum alloy comprehensively suppress the market, with strong downward driving forces in the fundamentals. A photovoltaic conference has been held in Beijing for several days, and there are reports that the state will regulate the photovoltaic production capacity. The market is waiting for the conference results, and short - term policy expectations provide strong bottom support. However, the continuous increase in production scheduling and poor downstream acceptance have not resolved the high - pressure inventory situation. Currently, the market is full of news about the photovoltaic conference and the progress of stockpiling, and speculative sentiment has returned. The market fluctuates strongly, so it is recommended to enter the market cautiously. Attention should be paid to the expectation adjustment after the policy is implemented and the actual situation of production reduction and sales control in the silicon material sector [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research View - On October 22, the main contract of industrial silicon 2511 closed at 8,485 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.06% and a reduction of 10,964 lots in positions to 96,600 lots. The reference price of industrial silicon spot was 9,523 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 remained stable at 8,900 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 235 yuan/ton [2]. - The main contract of polysilicon 2511 closed at 50,310 yuan/ton, with an intraday decrease of 0.55% and a reduction of 3,221 lots in positions to 49,016 lots. The price of N - type recycled polysilicon material rose to 52,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material also rose to 52,500 yuan/ton. The spot changed from a discount to a premium of 1,640 yuan/ton [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring Industrial Silicon - Futures settlement price: The main contract decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 8,485 yuan/ton, and the near - month contract increased by 150 yuan/ton to 8,615 yuan/ton [3]. - Spot price: Most prices remained stable, with only a few showing changes. For example, the price of 421 silicon in some regions decreased by 50 - 100 yuan/ton, and the price of oxygen - passed 553 silicon in Xinjiang decreased by 50 yuan/ton [3]. - Inventory: The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 113 tons, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 835 tons. The total social inventory decreased by 3,000 tons [3]. Polysilicon - Futures settlement price: The main contract decreased by 405 yuan/ton to 50,310 yuan/ton, and the near - month contract decreased by 1,780 yuan/ton to 50,860 yuan/ton [3]. - Spot price: The prices of various types of polysilicon remained stable, and the spot changed from a discount to a premium of 1,640 yuan/ton [3]. - Inventory: The polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 10 tons, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 14,000 tons, and the total social inventory increased by 10,000 tons [3]. Organic Silicon - Spot price: The price of DMC in the East China market remained stable at 11,300 yuan/ton, and the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,700 yuan/ton to 13,500 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Chart Analysis 3.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - side Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade price differences, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [4][6][9]. 3.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts show the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [12][14][18]. 3.3 Inventory - Charts show the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [20][22]. 3.4 Cost - profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [26][28][34]. 4. Non - ferrous Metals Team Introduction - The team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience in non - ferrous metal research, focusing on different fields such as precious metals, aluminum - silicon, and lithium - nickel [36][37].
工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025年10月23日）-20251023
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-10-23 03:17