光大期货农产品日报-20251023

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Instead, it gives investment outlooks for individual agricultural products: corn - volatile; soybean meal - volatile; oils - volatile (with a potential upward trend for palm oil); eggs - volatile; and pigs - volatile [1][2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn prices are under pressure due to a strong harvest outlook, with expectations of further declines in futures prices. Group companies are taking short positions in forward contracts. North China corn prices are stable to slightly strong, while North Port prices are under pressure after a wave of restocking [1] - Soybean meal futures are volatile. CBOT soybeans rose on improved export prospects, and the US government plans to assist farmers. Brazilian soybean exports and production are expected to increase. In the domestic market, protein meal prices hit a new low, and the supply of soybean and rapeseed meal is ample, with cautious demand [1] - Oils are volatile. BMD palm oil fell for three consecutive days, with production increasing more than exports in October. Indonesia's biodiesel policy has been upgraded, and international crude oil prices are fluctuating. Domestic palm oil inventories have risen, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil inventories have declined slightly [1] - Egg prices are weak due to high supply pressure, and the elimination of excess production capacity is not clear. Future egg production capacity will depend on farmers' decisions on replenishment and culling [1] - Pig prices are volatile. After a sharp decline, there is an expectation of a technical rebound. Northeast pig prices are relatively strong, but there is limited upward momentum due to weak external demand and high supply pressure from large - scale farms [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Corn: On Wednesday, corn futures (contract 2601) opened slightly lower and trended down. North Port prices were under pressure, while North China prices were stable to slightly strong. Shandong deep - processing enterprises adjusted prices within a range of 10 - 20 yuan/ton. Considering the strong harvest this year, there is a possibility of further declines in corn futures prices [1] - Soybean Meal: CBOT soybeans rose on Wednesday due to improved export prospects and US government assistance plans. Brazilian soybean exports in October increased by over 1 million tons year - on - year, and production is expected to reach 1.785 billion tons. Domestic protein meal prices hit a new low, and the supply of soybean and rapeseed meal is ample, with cautious demand [1] - Oils: BMD palm oil fell for three consecutive days, with production increasing by 10.77% in October 1 - 20 compared to exports growing by 2.5% - 4.3%. Indonesia's biodiesel consumption increased by nearly 10% in January - September. Domestic palm oil inventories rose, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil inventories declined slightly [1] - Eggs: On Wednesday, the egg futures contract 2512 closed down 0.71%. Spot egg prices were mostly stable, with some declines in certain regions. High supply pressure continues to weigh on egg prices [1] - Pigs: On Wednesday, the pig futures contract 2601 closed in a doji pattern. Northeast pig prices were relatively strong, but there is limited upward momentum due to weak external demand and high supply pressure from large - scale farms. The narrowing spread between standard and fat pigs and the entry of second - fattening farmers have alleviated supply pressure to some extent [2] 3.2 Market Information - Russia has reduced the wheat export tariff by 66% to 99.1 rubles per ton since October 22, while barley and corn tariffs remain at zero [2] - On October 22, the Russian Federation Council revoked the "Plutonium Management and Disposal Agreement" with the US [3] - Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 10.77% from October 1 - 20, with different growth rates in different regions [3] - Since August, the average wholesale price of pork has declined for ten consecutive weeks. A researcher believes that the pig price in mid - October may be the lowest for the year [3] - In September 2025, the national industrial feed production was 30.36 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. The prices of major feed products declined year - on - year, and the proportion of corn and soybean meal in feed decreased [4] 3.3 Variety Spreads - The report provides charts of contract spreads (1 - 5 spreads) for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs, as well as contract basis charts for these products, but does not provide specific data analysis [5][6][7][11][13][14][15][17][18][23] 3.4 Team Member Introduction - Wang Na is the director of the agricultural product research department at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience and many industry honors [27] - Hou Xueling is an analyst for soybeans at Everbright Futures, with over a decade of experience and multiple industry awards [27] - Kong Hailan is a researcher for eggs and pigs at Everbright Futures, with a master's degree in economics and experience in media interviews [27]