光大期货软商品日报-20251023

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The view on cotton is that it will be in a volatile state. On Wednesday, ICE US cotton fell 1.2% to 63.65 cents per pound, and CF601 rose 0.3% to 13,535 yuan per ton. The position of the main contract decreased by 417 lots to 593,000 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,560 yuan per ton, up 30 yuan from the previous day. Internationally, there are still macro - level disturbances, and Trump's speech affected market sentiment. Domestically, the upward trend of Zhengzhou cotton futures is due to different views on the increase in domestic cotton production in the 2025/26 season, a slight increase in the purchase price of new cotton in southern Xinjiang, and good economic data in the third quarter. In the short term, it is difficult for Zhengzhou cotton to break out of the volatile range [2]. - The view on sugar is also that it will be in a volatile state. Agricultural consulting firm Datagro predicts that the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2026/27 season will be about 625 million tons, with sugar production of 42.3 million tons and a sugar - making ratio of 52%. Domestic spot markets are clearing inventories. The futures price is following the weakness of raw sugar and is testing the support at the 5400 mark. Attention should be paid to India's export policy for the new season [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - Cotton: ICE US cotton fell 1.2% to 63.65 cents per pound, CF601 rose 0.3% to 13,535 yuan per ton. The main contract position decreased by 417 lots to 593,000 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,560 yuan per ton, up 30 yuan. International macro - level disturbances and Trump's speech affected the market. Domestically, factors such as different views on production, rising purchase prices in southern Xinjiang, and good economic data led to the upward trend of Zhengzhou cotton futures. Short - term volatility is expected [2]. - Sugar: Datagro predicts Brazil's sugarcane crushing volume, sugar production, and sugar - making ratio. Domestic spot markets are clearing inventories. The futures price is weak, following raw sugar, and testing the 5400 mark. Attention should be paid to India's new - season export policy [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 1 - 5 contract spread was - 40 yuan, up 20 yuan; the main contract basis was 1237 yuan, up 49 yuan. The spot price in Xinjiang was 14,643 yuan per ton, up 57 yuan, and the national spot price was 14,772 yuan per ton, up 44 yuan [3]. - Sugar: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 46 yuan, up 6 yuan; the main contract basis was 344 yuan, up 2 yuan. The spot price in Nanning was 5750 yuan per ton, down 20 yuan, and in Liuzhou was 5770 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan [3]. 3. Market Information - On October 22, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 2565, down 14 from the previous day, with 286 valid forecasts. The arrival prices of cotton in different regions were reported, and the load and inventory data of yarn and short - fiber cloth were also provided [4]. - On October 22, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5770 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan, and in Liuzhou was 5750 yuan per ton, down 20 yuan. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 8313, down 63 from the previous day, with 0 valid forecasts [4][5]. 4. Chart Analysis - Charts for cotton include the closing price and basis of the main contract, 1 - 5 spread, 1% tariff quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and the China Cotton Price Index [7][10][11]. - Charts for sugar include the closing price and basis of the main contract, 1 - 5 spread, and warehouse receipts and valid forecasts [14][15].