光大期货碳酸锂日报（2025 年 10 月 23）-20251023

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of the lithium carbonate futures 2601 contract rose 1.63% to 77,120 yuan/ton yesterday. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 250 yuan/ton to 74,350 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose by 250 yuan/ton to 72,100 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) increased by 100 yuan/ton to 73,230 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 873 tons to 29,019 tons [3]. - Supply is expected to increase month - on - month overall. The weekly production increased by 431 tons to 21,066 tons, and the lithium carbonate production in October increased by 3% month - on - month to about 90,000 tons. On the demand side, in the week, the production of ternary materials increased by 271 tons to 17,247 tons, and the inventory increased by 114 tons to 17,963 tons; the production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 572 tons to 85,039 tons, and the inventory increased by 970 tons to 102,818 tons; the weekly cell production increased by 1.2% to 28.27GWh, among which lithium iron increased by 1.4% to 21.12GWh, and ternary increased by 0.8% to 7.4GWh. In October, the peak season continued, and the consumption of lithium carbonate by the two major main materials increased by 2% month - on - month to 104,800 tons, and the total consumption of lithium carbonate by cathode + electrolyte + others increased by 7% month - on - month to 123,800 tons. In terms of inventory, the total inventory continued to decline to 133,000 tons, and the total inventory turnover days decreased significantly [3]. - Recently, due to the peak demand season, lithium carbonate destocking, and firm lithium ore prices, there is still support below the short - term price. Yesterday, there was news disturbance on the supply side, and the price strengthened again in the afternoon. However, according to publicly available market information, there is still an expectation of project resumption for lithium ore projects in Jiangxi in November. Therefore, it is recommended to be cautiously bullish and pay attention to the warehouse receipt inventory [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 77,120 yuan/ton, up 1,140 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 76,180 yuan/ton, up 380 yuan [5]. - Lithium Ore: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 857 US dollars/ton, up 3 US dollars; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) remained unchanged at 1,115 yuan/ton; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) remained unchanged at 1,845 yuan/ton; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was 6,475 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) was 7,650 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan [5]. - Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) was 74,350 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) was 72,100 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 73,230 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 78,200 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 67,930 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) remained unchanged at 9.45 US dollars/kg [5]. - Lithium Hexafluorophosphate: The price was 87,000 yuan/ton, up 5,000 yuan [5]. - Price Spreads: The price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 2,250 yuan/ton; the price spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate was - 1,120 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide - SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide was - 6,178.47 yuan/ton, down 77 yuan [5]. - Precursors and Cathode Materials: The prices of various ternary precursors and cathode materials generally increased, such as the price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/power - type) was 102,850 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 142,925 yuan/ton, up 3,500 yuan [5]. - Cells and Batteries: The prices of various cells and batteries also showed an upward trend, such as the price of 523 square ternary cells was 0.493 yuan/Wh, up 0.097 yuan; the price of 523 soft - pack ternary cells was 0.51 yuan/Wh, up 0.1 yuan [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - Ore Prices: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%, 7% - 8%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8] - Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices: Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2025 [10][12][14] - Price Spreads: Charts present the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide - battery - grade lithium hydroxide, battery - grade lithium carbonate (CIF Asia) - domestic battery - grade lithium carbonate, and basis from 2024 to 2025 [17][18][19] - Precursors and Cathode Materials: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and lithium cobaltate from 2024 to 2025 [21][22][25] - Lithium Battery Prices: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, lithium cobaltate cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [28][30] - Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links of lithium carbonate from February to October 2025 [33][35] - Production Costs: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as purchased ternary pole piece black powder, purchased lithium iron phosphate pole piece black powder, purchased lithium mica concentrate, and purchased lithium spodumene concentrate from 2024 to 2025 [37][38]