Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no explicit industry investment rating provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For steel products, the short - term rebar futures market is expected to trade in a narrow range. The improvement in construction site fund availability is positive for rebar demand. For iron ore, the price will show a range - bound oscillation in the short term, with high demand providing support but overall weak sentiment in the black commodities market. For coking coal and coke, both are expected to have wide - range oscillations in the short term due to supply and demand factors and the poor profitability of the steel industry. For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, they are expected to trade sideways in the short term, lacking clear directional guidance [1][3]. Group 3: Summary by Categories 1. Research Views - Steel (Rebar): The rebar 2601 contract closed at 3068 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton (0.69%) from the previous trading day, with a decrease in positions. Spot prices rose slightly, and trading volume increased. This week, national building materials production decreased by 2.45 tons to 399.58 tons, social inventory decreased by 9.97 tons to 654.01 tons, factory inventory decreased by 0.64 tons to 363.88 tons, and apparent demand increased by 41.43 tons to 410.19 tons. Construction site fund availability reached the highest level since the Spring Festival this year [1]. - Iron Ore: The main iron ore futures contract i2601 closed at 774 yuan/ton, up 4.5 yuan/ton (0.6%) from the previous day, with a decrease in positions. Port spot prices rose. Australian and Brazilian shipments increased slightly, and iron - making water production decreased. Steel mills' profitability declined, and 47 port inventories continued to accumulate [1]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal 2601 contract closed at 1209.5 yuan/ton, up 32.5 yuan/ton (2.76%), with an increase in positions. Spot prices in some areas changed. Supply was tightened due to environmental protection, safety inspections, and accidents. Demand remained high, but the profitability of the steel and coking industries was poor [1]. - Coke: The coke 2601 contract closed at 1709.5 yuan/ton, up 37.5 yuan/ton (2.24%), with a decrease in positions. Spot prices at ports rose. Coke production was stable, but profit margins decreased, and some enterprises reduced production. Demand was supported by high iron - making water production, but the weak steel prices affected the market [1]. - Manganese Silicon: On Wednesday, the manganese silicon futures price strengthened, with the main contract closing at 5810 yuan/ton, up 0.97%. The main contract positions decreased. Market prices in some regions increased. Production stopped falling and rebounded, but downstream demand was low, and inventory reached a new high [3]. - Ferrosilicon: On Wednesday, the ferrosilicon futures price strengthened, with the main contract closing at 5538 yuan/ton, up 1.06%. The main contract positions decreased. Market prices in some regions increased. Production decreased slightly, demand was weak, and inventory was at a high level [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Contract Spreads and Basis: Data on contract spreads (such as 1 - 5 months, 5 - 9 months) and basis for various commodities (rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon) are provided, along with their daily changes. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of rebar was - 52.0, up 5.0 [4]. - Profit and Price Ratios: Information on profits (such as rebar's futures profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) and price ratios (such as hot - rolled coil to rebar ratio, rebar to iron ore ratio) and their daily changes are presented. For example, the rebar futures profit was - 106.9, down 5.2 [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - 3.1 Main Contract Prices: Charts show the closing prices of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][8][9][11][14]. - 3.2 Main Contract Basis: Charts display the basis of main contracts for various commodities over different time periods, such as the basis of rebar from 2022 - 2026 [16][18][21][23]. - 3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads: Charts present the spreads between different contracts (e.g., 10 - 01, 01 - 05) for various commodities over multiple years, like the 01 - 05 spread of rebar from 2001 - 2025 [26][28][29][30][31][33][34][35][37][39]. - 3.4 Inter - commodity Contract Spreads: Charts show the spreads between different commodities, such as the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread, rebar to iron ore ratio, etc., from 2020 - 2025 [41][42][43][44]. - 3.5 Rebar Profits: Charts illustrate the futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of rebar from 2020 - 2025 [46][47][49][50]. 4. Black Research Team - The team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, with detailed information about their positions, work experience, and professional qualifications provided [52][53].
黑色商品日报-20251023
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-10-23 03:16