20251023申万期货有色金属基差日报-20251023

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper prices may be on the stronger side. The concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point, yet smelting output continues to grow rapidly. The Indonesian mine accident is likely to turn the global copper supply - demand into a deficit, providing long - term support for copper prices [2]. - Zinc prices may fluctuate within a range. The short - term zinc concentrate processing fees have generally rebounded, and smelting profits have turned positive, with smelting output expected to continue to rise. Due to different inventory situations at home and abroad, domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones, and overall, the supply - demand difference is not obvious [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Market situation: Night - session copper prices fluctuated and consolidated. The concentrate supply is tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point, but smelting output has high growth. Grid investment has positive growth, power supply investment slows down, automobile production and sales have positive growth, home appliance production scheduling has negative growth, and the real estate market is weak. The Indonesian mine accident may lead to a global copper supply - demand deficit [2]. - Price outlook: Copper prices may be on the stronger side. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - Market data: The previous domestic futures closing price was 85,380 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 10 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 10,659 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 6.36 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 137,150 tons, and the daily change was - 25 tons [2]. Zinc - Market situation: Night - session zinc prices closed higher, and the low LME inventory led to an obvious spot premium. Short - term zinc concentrate processing fees have generally rebounded, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to rise. Galvanized sheet inventory increased weekly. Infrastructure investment cumulative growth rate slowed down, automobile production and sales had positive growth, home appliance production scheduling had negative growth, and the real estate market was weak. Domestic and foreign inventory situations are different [2]. - Price outlook: Zinc prices may fluctuate within a range. Domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - Market data: The previous domestic futures closing price was 21,985 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 95 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 3,020 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 338.74 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 37,275 tons, and the daily change was - 50 tons [2]. Other Metals (Aluminum, Nickel, Lead, Tin) - Market data: - Aluminum: Previous domestic futures closing price was 21,015 yuan/ton, domestic basis was - 20 yuan/ton, previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,806 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was 2.61 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 484,125 tons, and daily change was - 3,000 tons [2]. - Nickel: Previous domestic futures closing price was 121,120 yuan/ton, domestic basis was - 1,430 yuan/ton, previous LME 3 - month closing price was 15,140 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was - 202.16 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 250,476 tons, and daily change was 0 tons [2]. - Lead: Previous domestic futures closing price was 17,160 yuan/ton, domestic basis was - 195 yuan/ton, previous LME 3 - month closing price was 1,995 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was - 39.73 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 247,300 tons, and daily change was 0 tons [2]. - Tin: Previous domestic futures closing price was 281,680 yuan/ton, domestic basis was - 120 yuan/ton, previous LME 3 - month closing price was 35,400 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was 55.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 2,735 tons, and daily change was 0 tons [2].