2025年9月债市托管数据点评：中债登托管量环比少增，债市整体杠杆率微增

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate may not decline significantly, and structural issues such as prices are expected to improve trend - wise [7]. - The allocation between stocks and bonds continues to shift, with bond yields and the stock market expected to rise continuously [7]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overall Situation - The combined bond custody volume of Shanghai Clearing House and China Central Depository & Clearing Co., Ltd. (CCDC) increased less month - on - month in September. The combined custody volume was 175.46 trillion yuan, with a net monthly increase of 92.1157 billion yuan, a decrease in the month - on - month increase [3]. - The bond custody volume of Shanghai Clearing House was 48.66 trillion yuan, with a net monthly increase of 3.2441 billion yuan, a rebound in the month - on - month increase [3]. - The bond custody volume of CCDC was 126.80 trillion yuan, with a net monthly increase of 88.8716 billion yuan, a decrease in the month - on - month increase [3]. 3.2 By Bond Type - Interest - rate bonds contributed the main increment this month. The custody volume of interest - rate bonds was 120.45 trillion yuan, with a net monthly increase of 132.9742 billion yuan; the custody volume of credit bonds was 33.36 trillion yuan, with a net monthly increase of - 4.4188 billion yuan; the custody volume of inter - bank certificates of deposit was 19.97 trillion yuan, with a net monthly increase of - 40.7479 billion yuan [4]. - At Shanghai Clearing House, financial bonds (excluding policy - bank financial bonds) contributed the main increment, with a net monthly increase of 26.6 billion yuan; company credit - type bonds had a net monthly increase of 7.7706 billion yuan; interest - rate bonds had a net monthly increase of 6.8 billion yuan; inter - bank certificates of deposit had a net monthly increase of - 40.7479 billion yuan [4]. - At CCDC, treasury bonds contributed the main increment, with a net monthly increase of 76.1256 billion yuan; interest - rate bonds had a net monthly increase of 126.1742 billion yuan; credit bonds had a net monthly increase of - 37.3026 billion yuan [4]. 3.3 By Institution - Commercial banks were the main force in increasing bond holdings. The custody volume of commercial banks was 93.62 trillion yuan, with a net monthly increase of 60.6672 billion yuan [5]. - At Shanghai Clearing House, deposit - taking financial institutions, insurance companies, and securities institutions increased their bond holdings, with net monthly increases of 9.9437 billion yuan, 1.9957 billion yuan, and 0.3561 billion yuan respectively; policy - bank financial institutions, broad - based funds, and overseas institutions had negative net monthly increases in custody volume, which were - 6.6401 billion yuan, - 6.0279 billion yuan, and - 5.5686 billion yuan respectively [5]. - At CCDC, commercial banks were the main contributor to the increment, with a net monthly increase of 48.1213 billion yuan; securities and broad - based funds had negative net monthly increases in custody volume, which were - 3.8856 billion yuan and - 19.1230 billion yuan respectively [5]. 3.4 Leverage - The overall leverage ratio of the bond market increased slightly. In September, the overall leverage ratio of the bond market was 106.90% (previous value: 106.88%), a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points [6]. - By institution, the leverage ratio of commercial banks was 104.40% (previous value: 104.58%), a month - on - month decrease of 0.18 percentage points; the leverage ratio of non - bank institutions was 109.96% (previous value: 109.66%), a month - on - month increase of 0.29 percentage points, among which the leverage ratio of securities companies was 141.28% (previous value: 138.54%), a month - on - month increase of 2.74 percentage points [6].