固收视角看权益系列十一：坚守牛市主线

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - By comparing the development paths of the past five typical bull markets and the current one, it is found that when the underlying logic of the main - line sectors in a bull market remains unchanged, the market has strong sustainability, obvious excess gains, and new opportunities are brewing during adjustments. Investors are advised to seize the adjustment window period and choose the right time to layout by judging the logical smoothness of sub - industries [1]. - Economic stimulus policies are often the starting gun for a bull market. Policy shifts catalyze investors' expectations of future liquidity easing and long - term economic improvement, leading to an initial increase in market risk appetite and valuation. Industry prosperity and corporate fundamentals determine the main line of the market, and the main - line sectors are those with the most improvement expectations and policy benefits [3][11]. - Main - line sectors usually have several common characteristics: supported by top - level policies with sustainable prosperity stories; strong capital consensus with rapid and concentrated allocation of foreign, public, and leveraged funds; strong market sustainability, with significant multiple growth in gains, outperforming the market index, and internal diffusion within the sector [3][17]. - In a bull market, there are also non - main - line sectors that rise with the market. Their rise is mainly due to the inflow of funds and the increase in overall market risk appetite, with lagging start, lower gains, and poor sustainability [18]. - In a bull market, choice is more important than timing. During the adjustment period of the main - line sectors, if the adjustment is due to external shocks without changing the long - term development trend, it may be a new layout opportunity; if it is due to the industry entering the mature stage, wait for the valuation to return to a reasonable level and find sub - sectors with moats. As long as the underlying logic of the main - line sectors remains unchanged, funds will flow back after the short - term switch [2][19]. - If the fundamental logic of the main - line sectors is shaken, it may mean the end of the market. Currently, the technology sector is the main line of the current bull market. Although affected by tariff disturbances, investors should seize the adjustment window to re - layout [20]. - The convertible bond market generally follows the equity market. It can have independent bull markets when there is a systematic inflow of convertible bond funds, such as in 2022 and from July to August 2025 [20][22]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Past Bull Market Reviews - A - share market in the past 20 years can be divided into six typical bull markets: 2005 - 2007 (dominated by cyclical products), 2008 - 2009 (triggered by the "Four - Trillion" plan), 2013 - 2015 (driven by the mobile Internet), 2016 - 2017 (under the supply - side reform), 2019 - 2021 (led by consumption upgrade and new energy), and 2024 - present (guided by a new round of technological revolution) [9][11][12]. - During these bull markets, different main - line sectors emerged, such as cyclical products in the first round, financial and infrastructure sectors in the second round, TMT in the third round, large - cap stocks in the fourth round, and consumer and new - energy - related sectors in the fifth round. In the current sixth round, it is the new - quality productivity represented by computing power, semiconductors, and robots [12]. - The representative index gains of the six bull markets vary. For example, the WanDe QuanA index had a 583% increase in the first round (2005.07 - 2007.10), a 136% increase in the second round (2008.11 - 2009.07), etc. The main - line sectors generally had higher gains than non - main - line sectors [13][15]. 2. Current Market Situation - The technology sector is the main line of the current bull market, which has experienced different stages since September 24, 2024. Affected by tariff disturbances, market risk appetite has adjusted, and funds have flowed to defensive sectors such as dividend stocks. However, the underlying logic of the technology sector remains smooth, and investors should seize the adjustment opportunity to re - enter the market [20]. - The convertible bond market has had two independent bull markets, in 2022 and from July to August 2025, which were driven by the inflow of funds [20][22].