每调买机系列之四：债市调整期的抗跌资产图谱

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The anti - fall asset spectrum during the bond market adjustment period is: Treasury bonds > Certificates of deposit > Urban investment bonds > Bank perpetual bonds > Bank secondary capital bonds. Low - grade urban investment bonds sometimes show resilience beyond their credit ratings in liquidity - driven adjustments, and investors can return to the coupon strategy under liquidity pressure [1]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Bond Market Adjustment Review and Core Driving Factors - The bond market generally shows a characteristic of "long bull and short bear". In recent years, the bond market yield has been oscillating downward, but there have been several sharp market drops. Since 2020, the bond market has experienced six significant adjustments. Except for the large - scale and long - lasting adjustment in 2020, during the other five adjustments, the adjustment range of the 10Y Treasury bond yield was generally concentrated between 10 - 30bp, and the adjustment duration was concentrated between 10 - 30 days [2][13]. - The core driving factors of the six adjustments can be summarized into three categories: - Monetary policy and liquidity drive (e.g., May 2020, August 2023, February 2025): Central bank actively tightens or marginally tightens liquidity, rapid increase in capital interest rates, or supply shocks and credit events leading to liquidity stratification. Short - term interest rates usually rise more than long - term ones, and the yield curve flattens bearishly [17]. - Economic growth and inflation expectation drive (e.g., February 2022): Macro - economic data such as PMI and credit are better than expected, or there is significant inflation pressure (PPI, CPI). The market forms a solid consensus of "fundamental improvement", which is the core signal of the bull - to - bear transition. Long - term interest rates rise more significantly, and the term spread may widen [27]. - Policy drive (e.g., September 2024): Caused by major policies such as real estate and epidemic prevention or external events such as trade tariffs, the market's economic expectation for the future changes fundamentally, and funds flow from safe - haven assets to risk assets [28]. 2. Anti - fall Asset Selection Matrix under Different Driving Factors - Credit bonds are afraid of liability - side shocks, and interest - rate bonds are afraid of fundamental repair expectations. When institutional behavior dominates, interest - rate bonds are more anti - fall; when fundamental repair expectations dominate, credit bonds are relatively more anti - fall [29]. - Monetary policy and liquidity drive (e.g., August 2023, February 2025): The anti - fall degree of various assets (the smaller the yield increase, the more anti - fall) is: Low - grade urban investment bonds (short - term) > Treasury bonds (medium - long - term) > Certificates of deposit ≈ High - grade urban investment bonds (short - term) > Perpetual and secondary capital bonds (all terms). Under liquidity shocks, low - grade urban investment bonds and interest - rate bonds, especially medium - long - term Treasury bonds, are the most anti - fall. Certificates of deposit have a medium adjustment range as they are directly affected by capital interest rates. Perpetual and secondary capital bonds have the most severe adjustment and are the most vulnerable due to their duration and liquidity premium risks [3][29]. - Multiple factors such as policy drive + economic growth and inflation expectation (e.g., August 2022, September 2024): The anti - fall degree of assets is: Treasury bonds (short - term) > Certificates of deposit > Treasury bonds (medium - long - term) > High - grade perpetual/urban investment bonds > Low - grade perpetual bonds > Low - grade urban investment bonds. Short - term Treasury bonds and certificates of deposit are relatively insensitive to changes in risk appetite. Long - term interest - rate bonds are significantly adjusted due to improved fundamental expectations. Credit bonds, especially low - grade ones, have the largest adjustment range, and funds flow from low - grade credit bonds to risk assets such as equities. Overall, Treasury bonds > Certificates of deposit > Urban investment bonds > Bank perpetual bonds > Bank secondary capital bonds. Low - grade urban investment bonds can attract some investors to adopt the coupon strategy in the liquidity pressure stage due to their relatively high coupon income, thus showing better anti - fall characteristics than high - grade credit bonds in some periods [4][30]. 3. Summary of Common Characteristics of Anti - fall Assets and Investment Suggestions - Assets with strong anti - fall ability generally have higher liquidity, lower duration risk, and stronger safe - haven attributes. The anti - fall ability of low - grade urban investment bonds partly comes from their "high coupon" feature. In periods of high volatility and uncertainty, some investors turn to the "coupon strategy" [37]. - Investment suggestions: - Predict the decline space based on driving factors. Find 1 - 2 adjustments with the most similar driving factors, macro - environment, and market structure from historical reviews as a "reference". When expecting liquidity tightening or institutional behavior shocks, significantly shorten the portfolio duration and increase the allocation of certificates of deposit [39]. - Choose to take profits in time based on odds factors. The assets with the largest adjustment in a sharp bond market decline are often those that were over - bought due to crowded trading, such as short - term interest - rate bonds from January to February this year [39]. - Build a "core - satellite" asset portfolio: Use interest - rate bonds and certificates of deposit as the core ballast to provide anti - fall ability during bond market adjustments, and use perpetual and secondary capital bonds and urban investment bonds to seek higher coupons and excess returns [39]. - Use perpetual and secondary capital bonds as the "reverse indicator" of the market: They are both a signal of market over - optimism and risk accumulation when their spreads narrow significantly and trading is crowded, and an early indicator of market adjustment, suggesting reducing risk assets and switching to a defensive mode [39]. - Use the low - grade urban investment bond coupon strategy as a buffer for fluctuations: In the stage of rising market volatility without systematic credit risk, carefully select short - to - medium - term low - grade urban investment bonds with reliable cash flows, and adopt the "buy and hold to maturity" strategy to obtain high coupons. In the current market environment where the downward space of interest rates is limited and volatility is increasing, the allocation value of the coupon strategy is prominent [40].