Report Information - Report Title: Zhengzhou Cotton: Rising Cost of Cotton Lint [1][40] - Research Team: Hongye Futures Agricultural Products Research Team [3] - Report Date: October 23, 2025 [3] - Author: Wang Xiaobei [3] - Qualification Number: F0272777 [3] - Investment Consulting License Number: Z0010085 [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Trump's continuous signals have led the market to have positive expectations for China-US trade relations; as the domestic cotton harvest progresses, the market's estimate of this year's cotton production has been revised downward compared to the previous period, and the purchase price of seed cotton has steadily increased. Recently, both domestic and international cotton prices have rebounded, with Zhengzhou cotton showing stronger rebound momentum than US cotton. Although downstream demand remains lackluster, the rising price of seed cotton has increased the cost of cotton lint, and the hedging pressure range has shifted upward. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton may fluctuate with a slight upward trend in the short term, but due to the expected high yield and average downstream demand, the upward space is currently limited [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Expectations and Production Estimates - Trump's signals have created positive expectations for China-US trade relations, which may boost cotton prices if favorable. The market's estimate of this year's cotton production has been revised downward due to concerns about the impact of rainfall and cooling in Xinjiang on cotton yield and quality [4][5]. - As of October 16, the national cotton picking progress was 58.8%, 4.7 percentage points faster than the same period last year. The purchase price of machine-picked seed cotton has been rising steadily. As of the previous day, the purchase price index of machine-picked seed cotton in southern Xinjiang was 6.29 yuan/kg, up 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous day and 0.17 yuan/kg week-on-week; in northern Xinjiang, it was 6.21 yuan/kg, up 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous day and 0.11 yuan/kg week-on-week [5]. - As of October 21, the cumulative inspection of cotton lint in the 2025 cotton year nationwide was 97.86 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 94%, with Xinjiang accounting for 96.91 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 97% [5][6]. Import and Inventory - In September, China imported 95,000 tons of cotton, a year-on-year decrease of 22,300 tons but a month-on-month increase of 22,300 tons. From January to September this year, the cumulative cotton imports were 680,800 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.58 million tons, a decline of 69.9%. In September, the import volume of cotton yarn was about 130,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 18% and flat month-on-month. From January to September, the cumulative import of cotton yarn was 1.04 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 80,000 tons, a decline of 7.7%. In terms of import proportion, Australian cotton had the highest import volume in September, and Vietnamese cotton yarn had the highest import volume [7]. - As of the end of September, the domestic commercial cotton inventory was 1.02 million tons, a decrease of 660,000 tons compared to the same period last year. As of mid-October, it was 1.72 million tons, only slightly higher than at the end of September last year [7]. Price Trends - From October 15 to October 22, the price of the active contract of Zhengzhou cotton rose from 13,270 yuan/ton to 13,535 yuan/ton, an increase of 265 yuan/ton, while the price of the active contract of US cotton decreased from 63.83 cents/pound to 63.65 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.18 cents/pound [8]. - From October 14 to October 21, the Cotlook A price index rose from 74.95 cents/pound to 75.6 cents/pound, an increase of 0.65 cents/pound. From October 13 to October 20, the price of Indian S-6 cotton decreased from 54,200 rupees/candy to 52,900 rupees/candy, a decrease of 1,300 rupees/candy [10]. - From October 15 to October 22, the port pick-up prices of imported cotton yarn from India, Vietnam, and Indonesia all increased by 30 yuan/ton [11]. - From October 15 to October 22, the arrival prices of imported cotton (1% tariff and sliding duty) from the US and Brazil increased to varying degrees [12]. Downstream Market - The production and circulation prosperity indexes of Keqiao Textile showed certain fluctuations. The inventory of raw materials (cotton in yarn mills and cotton yarn in weaving mills) and finished products in the downstream market also showed different trends [37][39][42]. - The operating load of the downstream yarn and fabric industries also showed certain fluctuations [43][44]. Futures Market - As of Wednesday this week, the spot price index of 328 cotton increased week-on-week, the closing price of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton increased week-on-week, and the basis between them widened week-on-week. The price index of C32S cotton yarn increased week-on-week, the closing price of the main contract of Zhengzhou yarn increased week-on-week, and the basis between them widened week-on-week [46]. - As of Wednesday this week, the price difference between the domestic 328 cotton price index and the imported cotton price index under sliding duty and 1% tariff increased week-on-week. The price difference between the C32S cotton yarn price index and the port pick-up price increased week-on-week [48]. - As of Wednesday this week, the price difference between the main contract of Zhengzhou yarn and the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton on the futures market widened week-on-week, and the loss of the immediate theoretical processing profit of 32-count pure cotton yarn widened week-on-week [49]. - As of Thursday this week, the total of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 2,851, and the total of Zhengzhou yarn warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 6 [55].
郑棉：皮棉成本抬升
Hong Ye Qi Huo·2025-10-23 05:14