养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告-20251023

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Report's Core View - Soybean Oil: China's soybean oil inventory is accumulating, but it is expected to stop increasing and decline in the fourth - quarter consumption season. The futures price center may move up slightly. It is recommended to hold long positions in the main contract, with support at 8150 - 8200 yuan/ton and resistance at 8400 - 8450 yuan/ton [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: The main contract of rapeseed oil is weak. Although the inventory is high, it is decreasing. The short - term price may fluctuate, and the long - term price is expected to strengthen. Aggressive investors can consider going long on the 01 contract on dips [1]. - Palm Oil: The price is affected by the decline in international crude oil prices, but the medium - to - long - term outlook is bullish. Aggressive strategies can consider holding long positions or buying out - of - the - money call options after stabilization [2]. - Soybean Meal and Bean No.2: The supply of soybean meal is abundant, and the consumption is in the off - season. The price is weak. It is recommended to short the main contract lightly or sell out - of - the - money call options. For arbitrage, consider going long on the 01 contract's bean oil - meal ratio [2]. - Rapeseed Meal: The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to go long on the 01 contract's rapeseed oil - meal ratio [4]. - Corn and Corn Starch: The external market is in a game between harvest pressure and good exports. The domestic market is in a low - level oscillation. It is recommended to reduce short positions on dips [5]. - Soybean No.1: The new - season soybeans are on the market, and the high - quality ones are popular. It is recommended to exit long positions and wait and see [6]. - Peanut: The new - season peanuts are on the market, and the supply pressure exists. It is recommended to hold long positions for now [6]. - Live Pig: The spot price stops falling, and the futures price rebounds. It is recommended to wait for capacity reduction to be confirmed and then go long on the 2607 contract on dips [8]. - Egg: The futures price is at the bottom and oscillating. It is recommended for conservative investors to wait and see, and aggressive investors can go long on the 2512 contract on dips [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Market Analysis | Sector | Variety | Market Logic | Support | Resistance | Market Outlook | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean No.1 01 | New domestic soybeans are on the market, and downstream purchases are active. Low valuation. | 4000 - 4030 | 4100 - 4150 | Oscillatory adjustment | Exit long positions | | | Soybean No.2 11 | Weak reality collides with strong expectations. | 3500 - 3540 | 3675 - 3700 | Oscillatory adjustment | Wait and see | | | Peanut 11 | Increasing supply, poor yield in some areas of Henan. | 7500 - 7600 | 8020 - 8162 | Oscillatory adjustment | Wait and see | | Oils | Soybean Oil 01 | Stable fundamentals, affected by crude oil. Supply is sufficient, and the outlook for the fourth quarter is positive. | 8150 - 8200 | 8400 - 8450 | Oscillatory rise | Go long with a light position | | | Rapeseed Oil 01 | Import volume increased in September, but inventory in East China and coastal areas is decreasing. | 9800 - 9820 | 10220 - 10250 | Oscillatory adjustment | Go long after stabilization | | | Palm 01 | Production exceeds expectations, but inventory pressure is not large. Indonesia plans to promote B50. | 9230 - 9270 | 9650 - 9680 | Oscillatory adjustment | Go long after stabilization | | Protein | Soybean Meal 01 | Sufficient inventory, weak feed demand in the fourth quarter. Positive expectation lies in Sino - US trade friction. | 2800 - 2850 | 2960 - 2970 | Oscillatory adjustment | Hold short positions | | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | Inventory in coastal oil mills is decreasing, and market disturbances are mixed. | 2270 - 2300 | 2400 - 2430 | Oscillatory adjustment | Wait and see | | Energy and By - products | Corn 01 | After hitting a new low, sentiment is divided. Upside space is limited. | 2000 - 2020 | 2180 - 2200 | Bottom - level oscillation | Reduce short positions on dips | | | Starch 01 | Corn price is under pressure, and the spot is slightly loose. Upside support is insufficient. | 2340 - 2350 | 2500 - 2520 | Bottom - level oscillation | Reduce short positions on dips | | Livestock | Live Pig 01 | Feed price stops falling and rebounds, and the expectation of capacity reduction is strengthened. | 11800 - 12000 | 12500 - 12800 | Oscillatory bottom - seeking | Turn to waiting and seeing | | | Egg 12 | Capacity pressure and consumption peak - season expectation. | 2900 - 3100 | 3300 - 3350 | Oscillatory bottom - seeking | Wait and see | [11] 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - Inter - period Arbitrage: For most varieties, it is recommended to wait and see, except for corn 5 - 1 (go long on dips) and live pig 1 - 3 (positive arbitrage on dips) [12]. - Inter - variety Arbitrage: For some oil - related and protein - related spreads, different strategies such as short - selling, long - buying, and waiting and seeing are recommended. For example, go long on the 01 contract's bean oil - meal ratio and rapeseed oil - meal ratio [12]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategy The table shows the spot prices, price changes, main contract basis, and basis changes of various varieties in different sectors such as oilseeds, oils, and proteins [13]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oils and Oilseeds - Daily Data: It provides the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping dates, including CNF prices, arrival - at - port duty - paid prices, etc. [15][16] - Weekly Data: Shows the inventory and operating rates of beans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts. For example, soybean port inventory is 729.97 (33.71), and the bean crushing operating rate is 58.00% (1.00%) [17] 3.2.2 Feed - Daily Data: Presents the import cost data of corn from Argentina and Brazil in different months [17]. - Weekly Data: Displays the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and inventory of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises [18] 3.2.3 Livestock - Daily Data: Includes the spot prices, price changes, and relevant ratios of live pigs and eggs in different regions and at different times [19][20] - Weekly Data: Shows the weekly average prices, costs, profits, and other data of live pigs and eggs [21][23] 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts It includes a large number of charts related to the livestock end (live pigs and eggs), oils and oilseeds (palm oil, soybean oil, peanuts), and feed end (corn, corn starch, rapeseeds, soybean meal), showing various data such as prices, inventories, operating rates, and spreads [24][33][54] 3.4 Fourth Part: Feed, Livestock, and Oil Options Situation It shows the historical volatility and trading volume of options of some varieties such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, and palm oil [92] 3.5 Fifth Part: Feed, Livestock, and Oil Warehouse Receipt Situation It presents the warehouse receipt situations of various varieties such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, and palm oil [100]