纯苯与苯乙烯市场供需疲弱，库存压力加大李英杰

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The pure benzene market is experiencing weak demand, with rising port inventories and ongoing supply pressure. The demand side is unlikely to improve significantly in the short term, and the oversupply situation will persist. [2][3] - The styrene market is facing a mismatch between supply and demand, with low demand unable to support price rebounds. Although macro - policy may provide some support, the weak supply - demand pattern will continue. [4][5] 3. Summary by Section Pure Benzene - Market Overview: The pure benzene market is operating weakly, with port inventories rising again and increasing supply pressure. Downstream开工率 is low, and product inventories in some industries are high, dragging down demand. [3] - Supply and Demand: Supply is abundant, but due to weak downstream demand, the supply - demand contradiction has not been effectively resolved. The weak demand has led to a lack of price support and increased supply pressure. [3] - Market Outlook: Given the continued low - level downstream demand and high inventories in some industries, the demand side of the pure benzene market is unlikely to improve significantly in the short term. Port inventories may remain high in the coming weeks, and the basis may continue to weaken. [3] - Key Indicators: Supply is sufficient, port inventories are rising, downstream开工率 is falling, the monthly spread is weak, and the basis is weakening. The international arbitrage window is closed. [7] - Supply Details: Last week, new maintenance at Yulong Petrochemical, Shengxing Petrochemical, Urumqi Petrochemical, and Guangzhou Petrochemical occurred, but overall supply remained high. For hydrobenzene, there is more spot supply, and some plants have reduced their loads. [10] - Import Situation: Pure benzene imports are rising. Affected by US tariff policies, the US - Asia arbitrage window is closed, and most of South Korea's pure benzene is flowing to China, increasing import pressure. [12][14] - Downstream Situation: Downstream profits are weakening, and开工率 is seasonally declining. Overall demand is weakening, and downstream inventories are generally high. [16][18][23] - Inventory Situation: As of October 22, pure benzene port inventories were 99,000 tons, up 9,000 tons from last week. Due to weak downstream demand, inventories are expected to continue to accumulate. [28] - Price Spread: The pure benzene - naphtha price spread weakened after a brief recovery, and the BZN spread is low, indicating low pure benzene valuation. [30][32] Styrene - Market Overview: The styrene market continues to operate weakly, with significant pressure on both the supply and demand sides. Although downstream开工率 has increased,提货 performance is average, and port inventories are under pressure. [4] - Supply and Demand: In the short term, there are still maintenance plans, which may lead to some production cuts. However, new plants will impact the market supply. Downstream demand growth is limited due to weak terminal demand and high inventories in some downstream industries. [4] - Cost and Price: The non - integrated cost of styrene has decreased due to falling international oil prices, and losses have deepened. Although the supply - demand situation is weak, the valuation of the November contract is low, and the downward space is relatively limited due to potential macro - policy support in late October. [4] - Market Outlook: This week, styrene production is expected to decline slightly due to previous plant shutdowns. However, considering the concentrated downstream production in November and December, the supply - demand mismatch may intensify, and the weak supply - demand pattern will continue. [5] - Key Indicators: Supply has decreased slightly, downstream demand recovery space is limited, the EB2511 - EB2512 spread is suitable for reverse arbitrage, and port inventories are still high. [7] - Production Situation: Styrene开工率 has declined, and production has decreased. In September, production decreased but was still higher than in previous periods. The cumulative supply from January to September increased by 17.28% year - on - year. [36][38] - Import and Export Situation: In September, styrene imports were 26,200 tons, a slight increase from the previous month, and exports were 31,500 tons, showing significant year - on - year and month - on - month growth. [41] - Inventory Situation: As of October 22, styrene port inventories increased to 203,000 tons, up 6,000 tons from last week. Inventories are likely to continue to accumulate in late October. [45] - Downstream Situation: Downstream开工率 has weakened, and the profits of 3S products have declined. Downstream production is high, and there are no obvious signs of inventory reduction. [47][55] - Basis Situation: The styrene basis has been fluctuating narrowly. Due to weak downstream demand and high inventories, the basis is still weak and may decline further in the future. [57]