新世纪期货交易提示（2025-10-23）-20251023

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillation [2] - Coking coal: Oscillation [2] - Rolled steel: Oscillation [2] - Rebar: Oscillation adjustment [2] - Glass: Adjustment [2] - Soda ash: Adjustment [2] - CSI 50: Oscillation [4] - CSI 300: Oscillation [4] - CSI 500: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - 2 - year treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 5 - year treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 10 - year treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: High - level oscillation [4] - Silver: High - level oscillation [4] - Logs: Bullish outlook [5] - Pulp: Bottom consolidation [5] - Offset paper: Weak oscillation [5] - MPOB oils: Wide - range oscillation [5] - Soybean oil: Wide - range oscillation [5] - Palm oil: Wide - range oscillation [5] - Rapeseed oil: Wide - range oscillation [5] - Soybean meal: Oscillation with a bearish bias [5] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillation with a bearish bias [8] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillation with a bearish bias [8] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillation [8] - Live pigs: Oscillation with a bullish bias [8] - Rubber: Oscillation [9] - PX: Wait - and - see [9] - PTA: Oscillation [9] - MEG: Wait - and - see [9] - PR: Wait - and - see [9] - PF: Wait - and - see [9] Group 2: Report's Core Views - The iron ore market is characterized by loose supply, low demand, and port inventory accumulation, with the pattern of oversupply difficult to reverse. However, short - term prices have support due to potential macro - sentiment improvement [2] - The coking coal market is affected by macro - policy expectations and supply concerns from safety inspections, with the core contradiction being the low profit of steel mills [2] - The steel market has supply - demand contradictions, and prices are expected to continue to oscillate and adjust, with the market awaiting policy boosts [2] - The glass market is in a weak state, with demand dragged down by the real - estate sector, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [2] - The stock index market is in short - term consolidation with rising bullish sentiment, and it is recommended to hold long positions [4] - The treasury bond market has a slight upward trend, and it is recommended to hold long positions lightly [4] - The precious metal market, especially gold and silver, is expected to oscillate at high levels, influenced by factors such as central bank buying, interest - rate policies, and geopolitical risks [4] - The log market is expected to be bullish, with improved demand, rising cost expectations, and potential optimization of delivery rules [5] - The pulp market is expected to consolidate at the bottom due to weak cost support and poor demand [5] - The oil and fat market is expected to continue wide - range oscillation, affected by factors such as inventory, production, and demand [5] - The粕类 market is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias due to seasonal supply pressure and weak demand [5][8] - The live - pig market is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias in the short term, but the price increase is limited due to sufficient supply and weak demand [8] - The rubber market is expected to oscillate widely, with supply affected by weather and demand recovering [9] - The PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF markets have different trends, mainly affected by factors such as oil prices, supply - demand relationships, and cost [9] Group 3: Summary by Related Categories Black Industry - Iron ore: Supply is loose with high port arrivals expected, and the oversupply pattern persists. Trade frictions may cause price drops, but macro - sentiment improvement provides short - term support. Four key factors need to be monitored for price re - pricing [2] - Coking coal: Macro - policy expectations are high, but supply concerns from safety inspections have limited impact on the market. The low profit of steel mills is the core issue [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Supply pressure is relatively large, and the market is waiting for demand recovery in October. High inventory and weak demand require rapid de - stocking for price stabilization [2] - Glass: The market is weak, with low demand due to the real - estate downturn. Inventory is at a high level, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [2] Financial Products - Stock index futures/options: The market is in short - term consolidation, and it is recommended to hold long positions as bullish sentiment rises [4] - Treasury bonds: The market has a slight upward trend, and it is recommended to hold long positions lightly [4] - Precious metals: Gold and silver are expected to oscillate at high levels, driven by central bank buying, interest - rate policies, and geopolitical risks [4] Light Industry - Logs: Demand is improving, cost is expected to rise, and delivery rules may be optimized, making the market bullish [5] - Pulp: Cost support is weak, and demand is poor, so the market is expected to consolidate at the bottom [5] - Offset paper: Supply is stable, demand is general, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly [5] Oil and Fats - The market is affected by factors such as inventory, production, and demand, and is expected to continue wide - range oscillation [5] Agricultural Products - 粕类: Seasonal supply pressure is high, and demand is weak, so the market is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [5][8] - Live pigs: Supply is sufficient, demand is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate with limited upward space [8] Soft Commodities - Rubber: Supply is affected by weather, demand is recovering, and the market is expected to oscillate widely [9] - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF: These markets are mainly affected by oil prices, supply - demand relationships, and cost, with different trends [9]