碳酸锂日评20251023：上方空间有限-20251023

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - On October 22, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated upwards. The current supply and demand are both strong, with limited inventory pressure upstream. However, the expectation of reduced ore supply has weakened, downstream destocking has slowed, and the demand inflection point may be approaching. It is expected that the upside space for lithium carbonate is limited. The recommended trading strategy is to short at the upper edge of the short - term range [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On October 22, the closing prices of the near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures were 76,180.00 yuan/ton, 76,780.00 yuan/ton, 77,120.00 yuan/ton, and 77,120.00 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 380.00 yuan/ton, 1,200.00 yuan/ton, 1,140.00 yuan/ton, and 1,140.00 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 376,449.00 hands (+178,470.00 hands), and the open interest was 353,231.00 hands (+43,032.00 hands). The inventory was 29,019.00 tons (-873.00 tons) [1]. Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) was 74,350.00 yuan/ton (+250.00 yuan/ton), and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%/domestic) was 72,100.00 yuan/ton (+250.00 yuan/ton). The basis was - 2,770.00 yuan/ton (-890.00 yuan/ton), and the basis discount widened. The market was mostly in a wait - and - see state [1]. Cost Side - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) increased to 857.00 US dollars/ton (+3.00 US dollars/ton), and the price of lithium mica remained flat [1]. Supply Side - Last week, lithium carbonate production increased. The registered warehouse receipts were 29,019 tons (-873 tons), social inventory decreased, and both smelters and downstream reduced their inventories [1]. Demand Side - Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased. In October, the scheduled production of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide increased, and the production of power batteries increased last week. In September, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down, 3C shipments were average, and the production of energy - storage batteries will be tightened in October [1]. Inventory - The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory was 132,658 tons (-2,143 tons), with smelter inventory at 34,283 tons (-464 tons), downstream inventory at 57,735 tons (-2,030 tons), and other inventory at 40,640 tons (+350 tons) [1]. Industry News - Tesla's lithium iron phosphate (LFP) production line in Nevada will start production in the first quarter of 2026 [1].