集运日报：挺价情绪强，乐观情绪持续，盘面持续小幅上行，不建议加仓，设置好止损。-20251023

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sentiment of price support is strong, and the optimistic sentiment persists. The market continues to rise slightly. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - loss should be set [2]. - The tariff issue has shown a marginal effect, and the current core is the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the process of bottom - building. It is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3]. - The short - term strategy suggests that risk - preferring investors try to build positions below 1500 for the EC2512 contract, pay attention to the subsequent market trend, not hold losing positions, and set stop - loss [3]. - For the arbitrage strategy, in the context of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily or try with a light position [3]. - For the long - term strategy, it is recommended to take profit when the contracts rise, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content SCFIS and NCFI Freight Rate Index - On October 20, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI, comprehensive index) was 956.45 points, up 16.79% from the previous period; the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS, European route) was 1140.38 points, up 10.5%; the NCFI (European route) was 803.21 points, up 14.96%; the SCFIS (US West route) was 863.46 points, up 0.1%; the NCFI (US West route) was 1254.46 points, up 48.56% [4]. - On October 17, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1310.32 points, up 149.90 points from the previous period; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI, comprehensive index) was 973.11 points, down 4.1%; the SCFI European route price was 1145 USD/TEU, up 7.2%; the CCFI (European route) was 1267.91 points, down 1.5%; the SCFI US West route was 1936 USD/FEU, up 31.9%; the CCFI (US West route) was 725.47 points, down 6.7% [4]. Economic Data - The eurozone's September manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, back below the boom - bust line, lower than analysts' expectations and the previous value of 50.7. The service PMI preliminary value rose from 50.5 to 51.4, exceeding the expected 50.5. The eurozone's September composite PMI preliminary value was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations. The eurozone's September Sentix investor confidence index was - 9.2, with an expected - 2 and a previous value of - 3.7 [4]. - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level improved. The composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, remaining above the critical point, indicating that the overall expansion of Chinese enterprises' production and business activities accelerated [4]. - The preliminary value of the US September S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 52 (the final value in August was 53); the service PMI preliminary value was 53.9 (the final value in August was 54.5); the composite PMI preliminary value was 53.6 (the final value in August was 54.6) [4]. Contract Information - On October 22, the main contract 2512 closed at 1788.3, up 2.25%, with a trading volume of 28,600 lots and an open interest of 29,000 lots, an increase of 574 lots from the previous day [4]. - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18% [4]. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was 100 lots [4]. Geopolitical Events - On the evening of October 21, Iraqi Prime Minister Sudani had a phone call with US Secretary of State Rubio, discussing issues such as Iraq - US relations, security and military cooperation, and the upcoming November national parliamentary elections in Iraq [4]. - On October 21, Turkish Foreign Minister Fidan and National Intelligence Agency Director Kallen met with the chairman of the negotiation committee of the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) and members of the organization's Politburo in Doha, Qatar, exchanging views on the current situation in Gaza and the implementation of the first - stage cease - fire agreement on the ground [4].