美国新增对俄制裁，俄油出口面临挑战

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The sanctions imposed by the US on Russian oil companies have increased trade barriers, forming a bullish driver for oil prices. However, whether it will lead to a substantial reduction in Russian oil exports is uncertain, and the geopolitical factor only delays the downward trend of oil prices. The short - term price support is expected to be relatively stable, and the SC - Brent spread is expected to widen [4][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Latest Dynamics - On October 22, 2025, Brent and WTI crude oil closed up 4.36% and 3.13% respectively, and on October 23, SC crude oil opened up 3.5% in the morning [3] Reasons for the Rise - On October 22, the US Treasury added Rosneft and Lukoil to the sanctions list. In 2024, these two companies' crude oil production accounted for 46% of Russia's total production, which led to increased trade barriers and a bullish driver for oil prices. Trump also canceled the meeting with Putin and said it was time to sanction Russia [4] Fundamental Situation - Geopolitical factors dominate the short - term market. After the sanctions on Gazprom Neft in January 2025 and Rosneft and Lukoil on October 22, the top four Russian oil companies are all on the US sanctions list, accounting for 77% of Russia's 2024 crude oil production. The US Treasury's exemption for normal transactions ends on November 21. Although Russian oil exports have been relatively stable after multiple sanctions, the potential impact of this new round of sanctions is difficult to quantify [5] Market Outlook - Currently, the expectation of a reduction in Russian oil supply is difficult to disprove, and short - term price support is expected to be stable. Even if there is a reduction of hundreds of thousands of barrels in Russian oil exports, it is difficult to reverse the global crude oil supply surplus. The SC - Brent spread is expected to widen due to the enhanced substitution effect of Middle Eastern crude oil [6]