Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-10-23 08:46Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the shipping decarbonization sector, emphasizing the importance of biofuels, RNG, and green methanol as key areas for investment opportunities [3]. Core Insights - The shipping industry is entering a critical phase of decarbonization, driven by frequent policies from the IMO and the EU. The global shipping fuel consumption is approximately 300 million tons, corresponding to carbon emissions exceeding 1 billion tons, with the EU accounting for about 18% of this [3][8]. - The demand for low-carbon fuels is expected to outstrip supply in the short term, with significant compliance costs driving the need for zero or near-zero emissions fuels (ZNZ) [3][36]. - Biofuels are identified as a core measure for existing vessels, with a notable increase in biofuel bunkering at ports like Singapore [3][36]. - The report highlights the potential for biogas, particularly RNG, to significantly reduce emissions and improve energy security, with ambitious production targets set for 2030 in both China and the EU [3][36]. - Green methanol is projected to see rapid growth in demand, with a current estimate of 406 methanol vessels corresponding to a demand exceeding 800,000 tons [3][36]. Summary by Sections 1. Decarbonization Policies - The report outlines the increasing frequency of decarbonization policies from the IMO and the EU, marking a significant acceleration in the implementation of these measures [3][11][18]. 2. Low-Carbon Fuel Demand - There is a broad demand space for low-carbon fuels, with a short-term supply shortage anticipated. The report notes that the compliance costs associated with EU regulations are higher than those of the IMO, which will further stimulate demand for low-carbon fuels [3][36]. 3. Biofuels - Biofuels are highlighted as a critical decarbonization measure for existing vessels, with a significant increase in biofuel bunkering observed at ports like Singapore. The global production of biodiesel is approximately 52 million tons, with expectations for increased usage in shipping as electric vehicles proliferate [3][36]. 4. Biogas - The report emphasizes the growing demand for LNG vessels and the potential for RNG to drive significant growth in the sector, supported by a green premium that could lead to an industry explosion [3][36]. 5. Green Methanol - The report notes a rapid increase in methanol vessels, with a projected demand of over 800,000 tons. However, the global production capacity for green methanol is expected to be only 1.24 million tons by the end of 2025, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [3][36]. 6. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in biofuels, RNG, and green methanol production, including notable firms such as卓越新能, 山高环能, 维尔利, and 中国天楹, among others [3][36].