集运日报：挺价情绪强，乐观情绪持续，盘面持续小幅上行，不建议加仓，设置好止损-20251023

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sentiment of price support is strong, and the optimistic sentiment persists. The market continues to rise slightly. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - losses should be set [2]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the core is the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process. It is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs SCFIS, NCFI Freight Rate Index - On October 20, compared with the previous period, the NCFI (composite index) rose 16.79% to 956.45 points, the SCFIS (European route) rose 10.5% to 1140.38 points, the NCFI (European route) rose 14.96% to 803.21 points, the SCFIS (US West route) rose 0.1% to 863.46 points, and the NCFI (US West route) rose 48.56% to 1254.46 points [4]. - On October 17, compared with the previous period, the SCFI increased by 149.90 points to 1310.32 points, the CCFI (composite index) decreased by 4.1% to 973.11 points, the SCFI European route price rose 7.2% to 1145 USD/TEU, the CCFI (European route) decreased by 1.5% to 1267.91 points, the SCFI US West route rose 31.9% to 1936 USD/FEU, and the CCFI (US West route) decreased by 6.7% to 725.47 points [4]. Economic Data - Eurozone's September manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, back below the boom - bust line. The service PMI preliminary value rose from 50.5 to 51.4, and the composite PMI preliminary value was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations. The Sentix investor confidence index was - 9.2 [4]. - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points [4]. - In September, the preliminary value of the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 52, the service PMI preliminary value was 53.9, and the composite PMI preliminary value was 53.6 [4]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract remains weak, and the far - month contracts are strong, in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - preferring investors are recommended to try to build positions below 1500 for the EC2512 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend and set stop - losses [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Under the background of international situation instability, each contract maintains seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. Market Conditions - On October 22, the main contract 2512 closed at 1788.3, up 2.25%, with a trading volume of 28,600 lots and an open interest of 29,000 lots, an increase of 574 lots from the previous day [4]. - The daily limit and circuit - breaker for contracts 2508 - 2606 are adjusted to 18%, the margin for these contracts is adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4]. Geopolitical Events - On October 21, Iraqi Prime Minister Sudani had a phone call with US Secretary of State Rubio, discussing issues such as bilateral relations, security, and military cooperation, as well as the upcoming November parliamentary elections in Iraq [4]. - On October 21, Turkish Foreign Minister Feidan and National Intelligence Agency Director Kallen met with representatives of Hamas in Doha, discussing the Gaza situation and the implementation of the first - stage cease - fire agreement [4].