中原期货晨会纪要-20251023

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents a comprehensive overview of the financial market, including macro - economic news, price movements of various futures contracts, and investment suggestions for different sectors. It analyzes the supply - demand relationships, price trends, and potential risks in commodities such as agricultural products, energy and chemicals, industrial metals, and also provides insights into the stock index futures and option markets [3][6][10]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - economic News - Trump expects to reach a good trade agreement with China during the APEC meeting, but the meeting may be cancelled. China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has no information to provide [6]. - China Fund Industry Association will release a solicitation draft for public offering fund performance comparison benchmark rules, and multiple fund managers have submitted a batch of proposed benchmark indices [6]. - National Bureau of Statistics released September unemployment data by age group, with the 16 - 24 age group at 17.7%, 25 - 29 at 7.2%, and 30 - 59 at 3.9% [6]. - Guangdong Province issued an action plan for AI - empowered high - quality development of the manufacturing industry, with 16 policy measures [6]. - "Energy - saving and New - energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 3.0" was released, aiming for over 85% penetration of new - energy passenger vehicles by 2040 [7]. - Regional small and medium - sized banks have started a new round of deposit rate cuts, with a maximum reduction of 80 basis points [7]. - The total output value of China's geographic information industry in 2025 is expected to reach nearly one trillion yuan [7]. - In the first three quarters, the civil aviation industry's transport turnover, passenger volume, and cargo volume increased by 10.3%, 5.2%, and 14% year - on - year respectively [7]. - As of October 21, the US federal government debt exceeded $38 trillion, and the US government has been shut down for 22 days [7][8]. 3.2 Price Movements of Futures Contracts 3.2.1 Chemicals - On October 23, most chemical futures contracts showed price increases, such as natural rubber rising by 0.66%, asphalt by 0.616%, and crude oil by 0.425%. Glass and caustic soda showed price decreases [3]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products - On October 23, some agricultural product futures contracts had price increases, like yellow soybean No. 2 rising by 0.391% and rapeseed meal by 0.433%. Others such as sugar, palm oil, and corn showed price decreases [3]. 3.3 Investment Suggestions for Different Sectors 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - Peanut: The market is in a weak and volatile state. With increased supply and weak demand, it is recommended to wait and observe, focusing on the quality of peanuts from production areas and oil mills' purchasing strategies [10]. - Sugar: With supply pressure from Brazil and the northern hemisphere's new - season production, but supported by low domestic inventory, it is suggested to go long with a light position using 5400 as the stop - loss level [10]. - Corn: With new grain listing and inventory accumulation expectations, it is recommended to short on rebounds, focusing on the support at 2120 yuan [10]. - Eggs and hogs: Although there is short - term spot price support, the supply exceeds demand, and it is recommended to use the inter - month reverse spread strategy [10][11]. - Cotton: The market is in a state of weak supply and demand. It is expected to oscillate between 13500 - 13600 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the purchase price of seed cotton and downstream demand changes [11]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - Urea: With increasing supply and weak demand, the price rebound space is limited, and attention should be paid to export policies and off - season storage purchases [11]. - Caustic soda: The market expectation is weak, and the 2601 contract is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the performance of the lower support [11]. - Coking coal and coke: They are expected to oscillate within a range, with coking coal between 1050 - 1300 and coke between 1550 - 1800 [11][13]. - Logs: After the price breaks through the previous low, attention should be paid to the pressure between 825 - 830, and there is a risk of import volume suppressing price rebounds [12]. - Pulp: Although the supply is abundant, there is cost support. It is recommended to wait and observe, and go long with a light position if it effectively stands above the support [12]. - Offset printing paper: With increasing supply and inventory, it is recommended to go long at low prices with 4180 as the support, but beware of inventory pressure [12]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and aluminum: Supported by macro and supply - demand factors, the prices remain high, but macro risks should be watched out for [13][15]. - Alumina: The fundamental situation is in surplus, and the 2601 contract is weakly operating. Attention should be paid to factors such as bauxite [15]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: The prices are oscillating at a low level. Attention should be paid to relevant information from the Fourth Plenary Session [15]. - Ferroalloys: The supply exceeds demand in the medium - term, but the prices are rebounding this week. A wide - range oscillation view is maintained, and an industrial rebound hedging strategy is recommended [15]. - Lithium carbonate: With increasing supply and demand, the price has broken through the previous range. Attention should be paid to the pressure at 78000 yuan, and beware of supply - side risks [17]. 3.3.4 Option Finance - Stock index futures and options: In the current market, investors should pay attention to the spread arbitrage opportunities between varieties. Volatility investors can consider buying straddles or wide - straddles to bet on increased volatility after the decline in volatility. For the stock market, different strategies should be adopted according to whether the market volume increases or decreases [17][18][19].