每日核心期货品种分析-20251023

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - As of the close on October 23, domestic futures main contracts mostly rose, with coking coal up over 5%, coke, SC crude oil, and lithium carbonate up over 4%, and fuel oil and eggs up over 3%. In terms of declines, rapeseed and palm oil fell over 1%. Stock index futures rose, while treasury bond futures fell. In terms of capital flow, CSI 1000 2512, CSI 500 2512, and SSE 500 2512 had capital inflows, while AU 2512, M 2601, and AG 2512 had outflows [6] - The prices of copper, lithium carbonate, and coking coal are expected to be strong, while the prices of crude oil, asphalt, PP, plastic, PVC, and urea are expected to fluctuate, with crude oil in a supply - surplus pattern [8][10][20] Summary by Catalog Futures Market Overview - As of the close on October 23, domestic futures main contracts mostly rose, with some falling. Stock index futures rose, and treasury bond futures fell. As of 15:17 on October 23, some contracts had capital inflows, and some had outflows [6] Market Analysis Copper - In September 2025, China's refined copper production increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. The total output from January to September increased year - on - year. Copper mine disruptions limit price declines, and the supply is expected to be tight. Although the downstream acceptance of high prices is low, demand has rigid support. Overall, copper prices are expected to be strong and fluctuate upward [8] Lithium Carbonate - The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose. The supply and demand are both strong. The supply is growing steadily, and demand is strong due to the downstream battery industry. Although demand may decline slightly next month, the price is expected to be supported and fluctuate strongly in the short term [10] Crude Oil - OPEC+ will increase production in November, which will increase supply pressure. The demand peak season is over, and the inventory has increased. Although the price has fallen significantly since October, it is expected to rebound due to factors such as Sino - US trade negotiations and US sanctions on Russian oil companies [11][13] Asphalt - The asphalt production is expected to decrease slightly in October. The downstream demand is affected by factors such as funds and weather. The asphalt basis has declined recently. It is recommended to observe the asphalt futures price cautiously [14] PP - The downstream and enterprise开工 rates of PP are at relatively low levels. The cost has increased due to the rebound of crude oil prices. Although the downstream is in the peak season, the demand is less than expected. PP is expected to fluctuate weakly [15][16] Plastic - The plastic开工 rate has increased slightly. The downstream is in the peak season, but the demand is less than expected. The cost has increased due to the rebound of crude oil prices. Plastic is expected to fluctuate weakly [17] PVC - The PVC开工 rate has decreased, and the downstream recovery is significant but still at a low level. The export is expected to weaken in the fourth quarter, and the inventory is high. Although the cost has increased, PVC is expected to fluctuate [18][19] Coking Coal - The coking coal price is strong. The supply is short due to production control and import reduction. The demand has rigid support, and the price is expected to be supported by demand [20][21] Urea - The urea futures price rose. The cost has increased, and the demand is improving due to the start of wheat sowing. The market atmosphere is getting better, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly [22]