沥青日报：震荡上行-20251023

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market is showing an oscillating upward trend. The supply is at a relatively high level, but there are plans to reduce production. The demand is affected by factors such as project progress, weather, and funds. The crude oil price has rebounded significantly from a low level, and the basis in Shandong has decreased from a high level. It is recommended to cautiously observe the asphalt futures price [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Supply: Last week, the asphalt operating rate increased by 1.3 percentage points to 35.8% week-on-week, 8.0 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a neutral to low level in recent years. In October, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.682 million tons, a decrease of 0.004 million tons (0.1%) month-on-month and an increase of 0.35 million tons (15.0%) year-on-year. Some refineries have maintenance plans, and the asphalt output will decrease but still remain high [1]. - Demand: After the National Day holiday, the national shipment volume increased by 14.48% to 253,300 tons week-on-week, at a neutral to low level. The downstream operating rates of asphalt industries were mostly stable, with the road asphalt operating rate remaining flat at 29.0% week-on-week, still at the lowest level in recent years, restricted by funds and rainfall in some areas. The demand is affected by project rush in the north, cooling in some areas, increased rainfall in the south, and funds [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2601 contract rose 2.31% to 3,277 yuan/ton, above the 5-day moving average. The lowest price was 3,236 yuan/ton, and the highest was 3,300 yuan/ton. The trading volume increased by 7,848 to 194,697 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong rose to 3,340 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract fell to 53 yuan/ton, at a neutral to high level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: The operating rate of asphalt in Shandong and East China increased by 1.3 percentage points to 35.8% week-on-week, 8.0 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a neutral to low level in recent years [1][4]. - Investment: From January to August, the national highway construction investment decreased by 7.1% year-on-year. From January to September, the fixed asset investment in road transportation decreased by 2.7% year-on-year, and the infrastructure construction investment (excluding electricity) increased by 1.1% year-on-year [4]. - Social Financing: From January to September, the social financing stock increased by 8.7% year-on-year, with the growth rate dropping by 0.1 percentage point from January to August. In September, the new social financing reached 3.53 trillion yuan, but it was 233.5 billion yuan less than the same period last year due to a high base [4]. Inventory - As of the week of October 17, the inventory-to-sales ratio of asphalt refineries increased by 0.8 percentage points to 16.6% week-on-week, still at the lowest level in recent years [5].