Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-23 10:07Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - High egg production capacity remains the main concern in the market, with high in - production laying hen inventory and no over - culling of old hens. Post - holiday consumption seasonally weakens, leading to poor terminal digestion, cautious purchasing by traders, which drags down the egg market and suppresses near - month contracts. However, continuous losses reduce market replenishment enthusiasm, which is beneficial to forward prices. There is a tendency for previous short positions to take profits and exit the market, causing the futures price to rebound at a low level. But high production capacity pressure may limit the rebound space. The far - month contract may perform stronger than the near - month contract due to the logic of production capacity reduction [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The futures closing price of the active egg contract is 3027 yuan/500 kilograms, with a week - on - week increase of 102; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 24073 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 9306; the egg futures spread between January and May contracts is - 126 yuan/500 kilograms, with a week - on - week increase of 55; the futures open interest of the active contract is 247685 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 11145; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 0 lots, with no week - on - week change [2] 现货市场 - The spot price of eggs is 2.87 yuan/jin, with a week - on - week increase of 0.03; the basis (spot - futures) is - 161 yuan/500 kilograms, with a week - on - week decrease of 71 [2] Upstream Situation - The national laying hen inventory index is 115.26 (with 2015 = 100), with a month - on - month increase of 0.86; the national culled laying hen index is 124.63 (with 2015 = 100), with a month - on - month increase of 31.02; the average price of laying hen chicks in the main production areas is 2.6 yuan/chick, with no week - on - week change; the national new chick index is 76.65 (with 2015 = 100), with a month - on - month increase of 3.3; the average price of laying hen compound feed is 2.75 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.01; the laying hen breeding profit is - 0.46 yuan/hen, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.06; the average price of culled hens in the main production areas is 8.64 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.28; the national average age of culled hens is 507 days, with a month - on - month decrease of 3 [2] Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 17.62 yuan/kg, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.1; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 5.3 yuan/kg, with a day - on - day increase of 0.13; the average wholesale price of dressed chickens is 17.72 yuan/kg, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.05; the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.1 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.24; the weekly inventory in the production link is 1.05 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.45; the monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 13121.03 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 264.92 [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption volume of eggs in the sales areas is 7179 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 442 [2] Industry News - The average price of eggs in Shandong's main production area is 5.64 yuan/kg, up 0.06 from yesterday; in Hebei, it is 5.51 yuan/kg, up 0.20 from yesterday; in Guangdong, it is 6.20 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday; in Beijing, it is 6.14 yuan/kg, up 0.20 from yesterday. The in - production laying hen inventory remains high, old hens have not been over - culled, high production capacity is the main market concern, post - holiday consumption seasonally weakens, terminal digestion is poor, and traders are cautious in purchasing [2]