瑞达期货生猪产业日报-20251023

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Second - round fattening provides short - term support for prices, but on Thursday, the increase in spot prices slowed, and there were signs of cooling in second - round fattening replenishment. Coupled with the continuous supply pressure of live pigs, the rebound space is limited. It is recommended to wait for a rebound to short. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - The closing price of the futures main contract for live pigs is 12,200 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the main contract position is 107,371 lots, up 3,801 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 111 lots, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 30,896 lots, up 713 lots. [2] 3.2 Spot Price - The live pig price in Henan Zhumadian is 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin Siping, it is 12,200 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; in Guangdong Yunfu, it is 11,700 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan. The main live pig basis is - 300 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The live pig inventory is 42,4470,000 heads, up 7160,000 heads; the inventory of breeding sows is 4,0380,000 heads, down 40,000 heads. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The year - on - year CPI is - 0.3%, up 0.1 percentage points; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2,940 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the spot price of corn is 2,253.33 yuan/ton, down 4.91 yuan; the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index is 883.23, up 6.64. The monthly output of feed is 29,272,000 tons, up 999,000 tons; the price of binary breeding sows is 1,530 yuan/head, unchanged. The breeding profit of purchased piglets is - 375.29 yuan/head, down 74.25 yuan; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised live pigs is - 244.7 yuan/head, down 92.55 yuan. The monthly import volume of pork is 80,000 tons, down 10,000 tons; the average price of white - strip chickens in the main production areas is 14.3 yuan/kg, down 0.07 yuan. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises is 33,500,000 heads, up 1,840,000 heads; the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 449.57 billion yuan, down 8.4 billion yuan. [2] 3.6 Industry News - On October 23, 2025, the daily national live pig slaughter volume of key breeding enterprises was 310,070 heads, a 3.38% decrease from the previous day. In terms of supply, considering the data of newborn piglets and breeding sows, the theoretical slaughter pressure in the near - term remains. In terms of second - round fattening, due to the widening price difference between fat and standard pigs, there is concentrated replenishment, especially in the northern regions, which supports the stabilization and small increase of spot market prices, but the sustainability of entry needs to be observed. [2]