瑞达期货沪铅产业日报-20251023

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of lead is expected to increase, with some regenerative enterprises in Anhui planning to resume production and an expected increase in imported lead arrivals. The production of primary lead is expected to have limited growth in the short - term. The demand from downstream enterprises is still weak, with strong wait - and - see sentiment and cautious procurement. The overall demand is in a slow recovery stage. It is recommended to short - sell lead at high prices [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract is 17,615 yuan/ton, up 455 yuan; the 3 - month LME lead quote is 1,995 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars. The spread between the November - December contracts of Shanghai lead is 50 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan. The Shanghai lead open interest is 115,683 lots, up 27,111 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is - 3,686 lots, down 958 lots. The Shanghai lead warehouse receipts are 23,734 tons, down 1,243 tons. The SHFE inventory is 41,701 tons, up 1,785 tons; the LME lead inventory is 244,125 tons, down 3,175 tons. The spot price of 1 lead on SMM is 17,125 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market is 17,270 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan [2] 现货市场 - The basis of the lead main contract is - 490 yuan/ton, down 330 yuan; the LME lead (0 - 3) spread is - 39.73 dollars/ton, down 0.04 dollars. The price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan is 16,396 yuan, down 75 yuan. The WBMS supply - demand balance of lead is 22,000 tons. The price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) is 17,070 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan. The number of recycled lead production enterprises is 68, unchanged. The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 35.56%, down 2.32 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead is 224,200 tons, down 67,500 tons. The average weekly operating rate of primary lead is 81.64%, down 1.92 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead is 39,100 tons, up 1,800 tons [2] Upstream Situation - The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports is down 90 dollars/kiloton. The ILZSG lead supply - demand balance is - 5,600 tons, down 5,100 tons. The global lead ore output is 379,900 tons, down 16,000 tons. The monthly lead ore import volume is 134,800 tons, up 12,700 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly refined lead import volume is 1,820.55 tons, down 1,596.29 tons; the monthly refined lead export volume is 2,752.22 tons, up 957.7 tons. The average price of waste batteries in the market is 9,991.07 yuan/ton, unchanged. The domestic average processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory is 380 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries is 49.68 million units, up 1.925 million units. The average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, 2% antimony content) is 19,550 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan. The Shenwan industry index of the tertiary industry of batteries and other electrical cells is 1,978.98 points, down 23.88 points. The monthly automobile production is 3.227 million vehicles, up 474,600 vehicles; the monthly new - energy vehicle production is 1.333 million vehicles, up 157,000 vehicles [2] Industry News - Some regenerative enterprises in Anhui plan to resume production, and the supply is expected to pick up. The lead concentrate processing fee is currently stable, but the production rhythm of some smelters has changed greatly. Some smelters have maintenance plans, and the primary lead operating rate fluctuates slightly. The supply of waste batteries is still tight, and the recycling merchants are reluctant to sell. The profit of recycled lead has recovered, and the enterprises that stopped production in Anhui in October will resume production one after another [2] Viewpoint Summary - The supply of lead is expected to increase, while the downstream demand is weak, with strong wait - and - see sentiment. The overall demand is in a slow recovery stage, and it is recommended to short - sell lead at high prices [2]