瑞达期货工业硅产业日报-20251023

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The total demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream industries remains negative, and the industry inventory is still at a high level. Although the number of standard warehouse receipts has decreased, inventory digestion still faces certain pressure. Today, industrial silicon has risen, mainly due to the news of production cuts in the dry season. It is recommended to strategically place long positions on dips [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 8,705 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan; the position of the main contract is 76,195 lots, down 20,359 lots; the net position of the top 20 is -38,491 lots, down 1,652 lots; the warehouse receipts of GZEE are 48,371 lots, down 367 lots; the closing price of the December contract for industrial silicon is -370 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the spread between the November - December contracts for industrial silicon is -370 yuan, down 5 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - blown 553 silicon is 9,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract is 645 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan; the DMC spot price is 11,275 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1,980 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 402,800 tons, an increase of 36,000 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 1,337.59 tons, an increase of 1,220.14 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 76,642.01 tons, an increase of 2,635.83 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market is 21,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.85 US dollars/kg, an increase of 0.1 US dollars; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 6.51 US dollars/kg, a decrease of 0.02 US dollars; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 23,495.34 tons, a decrease of 5,568.37 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 69.36%, a decrease of 1.16 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.635 million tons, an increase of 99,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 29,063.7 tons, an increase of 4,154.82 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - According to the Silicon Industry Branch, there are 11 polysilicon enterprises in production this week. Based on the production plans of polysilicon enterprises in the fourth quarter, some production capacities in the southwest region are expected to gradually undergo maintenance and production cuts after entering the dry season in November. It is expected that October will be the peak production month of the year, and production will gradually decline from November to December. It is estimated that the annual domestic polysilicon production in 2025 will be about 1.34 million tons, a significant year - on - year decrease of 27.3% [2] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - On the supply side, the spot price of industrial silicon in the market has mainly declined this week. Sichuan and Yunnan are transitioning from the wet season to the dry season in October, with rising production costs for manufacturers and accelerated implementation of production cut plans. Some enterprises that have exhausted their raw materials have chosen to stop production. Some small factories in Gansu and Ningxia have completed raw material reserves and are observing the market, ready to start production at any time. Currently, some factories in Xinjiang are actively engaged in production, and some are conducting transactions with futures - cash merchants, locking in profits in advance through forward contracts. On the demand side, the downstream of industrial silicon is mainly concentrated in the organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy sectors. For organic silicon, the inventory is lower than the historical average. The production profit of organic silicon has slightly rebounded but is still in the loss range. The comprehensive operating rate has decreased month - on - month and is lower than the historical average, having a negative impact on the demand for industrial silicon. In the polysilicon segment, the inventory is as high as 275,000 tons, higher than the historical average. Silicon wafers and solar cells are in a loss state, and only components are profitable. For aluminum alloy, the overall inventory has slightly decreased, the price has remained flat, the operating situation of the aluminum alloy industry is stable, but the demand is average, and the pull on industrial silicon is limited. Overall, the total demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream industries is still negative. The industry inventory is still at a high level. Although the number of standard warehouse receipts has decreased, inventory digestion still faces certain pressure [2]