瑞达期货锰硅硅铁产业日报-20251023

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 23, the SM2601 contract was reported at 5,818, up 0.41%. On the spot side, the Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon - manganese spot was reported at 5,580. Fundamentally, inventory rebounded rapidly, production continued to decline slightly at a high level, and inventory increased for three consecutive weeks. On the cost side, the port inventory of imported manganese ore decreased by 9.3 tons. On the demand side, hot - metal production fluctuated at a high level. In terms of profit, the Inner Mongolia spot profit was - 130 yuan/ton, and the Ningxia spot profit was - 270 yuan/ton. In the market, the mainstream steel procurement price was 5,820 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 180 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line was above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On October 23, the SF2601 contract was reported at 5,574, up 0.94%. On the spot side, the Ningxia ferrosilicon spot was reported at 5,250, up 10 yuan/ton. Macroscopically, the US government shutdown entered the 22nd day, the second - longest on record, and the unemployment rate might rise temporarily. In terms of supply and demand, manufacturers' production mostly remained normal, delivering previous orders. Most manufacturers had hedged in the early stage, and the inventory was at a neutral level. Lanthanum coke stabilized, and the short - term cost was supported. In terms of profit, the Inner Mongolia spot profit was - 415 yuan/ton, and the Ningxia spot profit was - 330 yuan/ton. In the market, in September, HBIS's 75B ferrosilicon tender price was 5,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 230 yuan/ton from the previous round. Technically, the daily K - line was above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM主力合约收盘价为5,818元/吨，环比上涨8元；SF主力合约收盘价为5,574元/吨，环比上涨36元[2]. - SM期货合约持仓量为549,668手，环比减少8,517手；SF期货合约持仓量为374,830手，环比减少9,875手[2]. - 锰硅前20名净持仓为 - 60,487手，环比减少7,204手；硅铁前20名净持仓为 - 26,168手，环比增加294手[2]. - SM5 - 1月合约价差为42元/吨，环比上涨4元；SF5 - 1月合约价差为58元/吨，环比下降2元[2]. - SM仓单为45,836张，环比减少456张；SF仓单为11,184张，环比增加173张[2]. 3.2 Spot Market - 内蒙古锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5,580元/吨，贵州锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5,600元/吨，云南锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5,600元/吨，环比均无变化；宁夏硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,250元/吨，环比上涨10元，内蒙古硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,300元/吨，青海硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,160元/吨，环比无变化[2]. - 锰硅指数均值为5,640元/吨，环比下降31.9元；SF主力合约基差为 - 324元/吨，环比下降26元；SM主力合约基差为 - 238元/吨，环比下降8元[2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - 南非矿Mn38块天津港价格为24元/吨度，硅石（98%西北）价格为210元/吨，内蒙古乌海二级冶金焦价格为1,150元/吨，环比均无变化；兰炭（中料神木）价格为780元/吨，环比上涨20元[2]. - 锰矿港口库存为436.4万吨，环比减少9.3万吨[2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - 锰硅企业开工率为43.28%，环比上涨0.09%；硅铁企业开工率为35.48%，环比下降0.46%[2]. - 锰硅供应为208,810吨，环比增加4,585吨；硅铁供应为112,800吨，环比减少3,000吨[2]. - 锰硅厂家库存为262,500吨，环比增加20,000吨；硅铁厂家库存为69,080吨，环比增加3,050吨[2]. - 锰硅全国钢厂库存为15.93天，环比增加0.95天；硅铁全国钢厂库存为15.52天，环比增加0.85天[2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - 五大钢种锰硅需求为121,113吨，环比减少960吨；五大钢种硅铁需求为19,572.52吨，环比减少182.08吨[2]. - 247家钢厂高炉开工率为84.25%，环比无变化；247家钢厂高炉产能利用率为90.31%，环比下降0.22%[2]. - 粗钢产量为7,349.01万吨，环比减少387.84万吨[2]. 3.6 Industry News - Trump cancelled his meeting with Putin in Budapest. The US lifted key restrictions on Ukraine's use of long - range missiles. The US imposed sanctions on two major Russian oil companies for the first time since Trump took office, and oil prices rose 4% during the session[2]. - India and the US are close to reaching a trade agreement, with tariffs reduced from 50% to 15%[2]. - Minister of Industry and Information Technology Li Lecheng said that some traditional driving forces in China are weakening, and new driving forces are still being cultivated and strengthened, not fully able to make up for the decline of traditional driving forces. The driving force should come from innovation and reform[2]. - On October 22, most of the open - pit coal mines in Wuhai and Qipanjing with a capacity of about 28.3 million tons were shut down due to slope treatment and resource restructuring. Only three fire - fighting project coal mines in Wuda District were still in normal production. Recently, local environmental inspections have become stricter, restricting the shipment of producing coal mines, but having little impact on production. In addition, safety inspections in Qipanjing have affected production, with some over - producing coal mines suspending production and shipment. The supply of coking coal raw coal in the Wuhai market has decreased, and the online auction of some coal types has seen a premium of 50 - 235 yuan/ton, with upstream sentiment improving and coking coal quotes also planning to rise[2].