Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-23 10:25Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The alumina futures main contract is oscillating strongly, with increasing open interest, spot discount, and weakening basis. The alumina fundamentals may be in a situation of gradually decreasing supply and stable demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trading on dips [2]. - The Shanghai aluminum main contract is oscillating strongly, with increasing open interest, spot discount, and weakening basis. The fundamentals of Shanghai aluminum may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and boosted demand. Options market sentiment is bullish, and it is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating long trading [2]. - The cast aluminum main contract is oscillating strongly, with decreasing open interest, spot premium, and weakening basis. The cast aluminum fundamentals may be in a stage of converging supply and stable demand, with relatively high industry inventory. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating long trading [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 21,165 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; open interest increased by 29,550 lots to 286,749 lots. Alumina futures main contract closed at 2,838 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; open interest increased by 4,192 lots to 360,127 lots [2]. - LME aluminum three - month quote was 2,805.5 dollars/ton, up 24.5 dollars; LME aluminum inventory decreased by 1,600 tons to 482,525 tons [2]. - Cast aluminum alloy main contract closed at 20,625 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; open interest decreased by 153 lots to 12,683 lots [2]. Spot Market - Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 21,040 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; Yangtze River Non - ferrous AOO aluminum was 21,020 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [2]. - Alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,815 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 21,200 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Alumina production was 799.9 million tons, up 7.42 million tons; demand was 704.31 million tons, down 21.49 million tons; supply - demand balance was 46.85 million tons, up 18.12 million tons [2]. - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap was 16,700 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; in Shandong metal scrap, it was 16,200 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. Industrial Situation - Primary aluminum import volume was 246,797.1 tons, up 31,034.96 tons; export volume was 28,969.92 tons, up 3,365.58 tons [2]. - Aluminum product production was 590 million tons, up 35.18 million tons; export volume of unforged aluminum and aluminum products was 52 million tons, down 1 million tons [2]. Downstream and Application - Recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 65.65 million tons, up 2.06 million tons; aluminum alloy production was 177.6 million tons, up 14.1 million tons [2]. - Automobile production was 3.2265 million vehicles, up 0.4742 million vehicles [2]. Options Situation - The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 10.39%, up 0.0047%; the call - put ratio was 1.16, down 0.0545 [2]. Industry News - The new development concept of innovation, coordination, green development, openness, and sharing is the "ballast stone" and "power source" for China's economic development. China must develop new - quality productivity and enhance the support capacity of the modern industrial system for high - quality development [2]. - The "Energy - Saving and New - Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 3.0" was released, aiming for a new - energy passenger vehicle penetration rate of over 85% by 2040, with BEV accounting for 80% [2]. - The US government shutdown has lasted for 22 days, and it may continue until November and break the previous record [2].