Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-23 10:29Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The nickel market's oversupply situation is difficult to change, and the nickel price is expected to fluctuate and adjust, with a focus on the range of 120,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see for now or conduct range - bound operations [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 121,380 yuan/ton, with a 0 change; the 11 - 12 - month contract spread is - 230 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [3]. - The LME 3 - month nickel price is 15,140 US dollars/ton, down 70 US dollars/ton; the main contract's open interest of Shanghai nickel is 127,005 lots, up 5,694 lots [3]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 38,124 lots, down 1,705 lots; the LME nickel inventory is 250,854 tons, down 24 tons [3]. - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 34,419 tons (weekly), up 1,300 tons; the LME nickel cancelled warrants total 6,252 tons, down 24 tons [3]. - The warrant quantity of Shanghai nickel is 26,881 tons, down 72 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 122,150 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; the spot average price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals is 122,150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [3]. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, with a 0 change; the bonded warehouse (warrant) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, with a 0 change [3]. - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,800 yuan/ton, with a 0 change; the basis of the NI main contract is 770 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [3]. - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 202.16 US dollars/ton, up 4.13 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 611.45 million tons, down 23.22 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,528.84 million tons (weekly), up 27.91 million tons [3]. - The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 56.72 US dollars/ton, down 4.61 US dollars/ton; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, with a 0 change [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of ferronickel is 2.17 million metal tons, down 0.03 million metal tons [3]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 28,570.87 tons, up 4,144.03 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 108.53 million tons, up 21.12 million tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 176.27 million tons, up 2.48 million tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 58.36 million tons, up 0.02 million tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will lead a delegation to Malaysia for economic and trade consultations with the US from October 24th to 27th [3]. - The Learning Times published an article suggesting to improve the linkage between fiscal discount interest and financial credit, promote the matching of supervision and industrial policies, and build a long - term mechanism to expand consumption [3]. 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - Macroeconomically, there will be China - US economic and trade consultations. Fundamentally, Indonesia's PNBP policy restricts the supply of nickel resources, increasing costs, and the premium of domestic trade nickel ore is stable [3]. - The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines is at a high level, but the grade is decreasing, and the domestic nickel ore inventory is lower than the same period last year [3]. - At the smelting end, new electrolytic nickel projects are slowly put into production. Due to low nickel prices and cost pressure, some smelters cut production at a loss, so the output of refined nickel is expected to remain stable at a high level [3]. - On the demand side, stainless steel mills have a weak peak - season performance, with a small increase in production; new - energy vehicle production and sales continue to rise, but the demand for ternary batteries is limited [3]. - Domestic nickel inventory continues to grow, the market mainly purchases on demand, and the spot premium is slightly increased; the LME inventory overseas also shows an upward trend [3].