Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-23 10:28Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report suggests to temporarily observe or take a small - long position. The macro - situation involves China - US economic and trade consultations. Fundamentally, the closure of illegal tin mines in Indonesia may tighten the tin ore supply. There are shortages of raw materials in the smelting area, and the demand side remains cautious. The LME inventory slightly increases, and the spot premium slightly rebounds [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 281,230 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan; the closing price of the November - December contract of Shanghai Tin is down 420 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month tin is 35,400 dollars/ton, down 75 dollars. - The main contract position of Shanghai Tin is 14,931 lots, down 2,399 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures is - 1,719 lots, down 326 lots. - LME tin total inventory is 2,745 tons, up 10 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory is 5,691 tons, down 188 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warrants are 5,470 tons, down 130 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 280,000 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 280,380 yuan/ton, down 1,040 yuan. - The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is 430 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 55 dollars/ton, up 111 dollars [3]. 3.3上游情况 - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.03 million tons, with no change. - The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 269,300 yuan/ton, up 1,300 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 273,300 yuan/ton. - The processing fee of 40% tin concentrate is 10,500 yuan/ton, with no change; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrate is 6,500 yuan/ton, with no change [3]. 3.4产业情况 - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 1,438.58 tons, down 885.91 tons [3]. 3.5下游情况 - The price of 60A soldering tin bar in Gejiu is 181,150 yuan/ton, down 1,150 yuan. - The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.1093 million tons, up 144,800 tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 166,600 tons, down 39,400 tons [3]. 3.6行业消息 - Politburo member and Vice - Premier He Lifeng will lead a delegation to Malaysia for China - US economic and trade consultations from October 24 to 27. - Learning Times suggests improving the linkage between fiscal discount and financial credit, promoting the matching of supervision and industrial policies, and building a long - term mechanism for expanding consumption [3]. 3.7观点总结 - Macro: China - US economic and trade consultations are scheduled. - Fundamental: The closure of illegal tin mines in Indonesia may tighten supply; tin ore imports decreased in September, with production in some regions not meeting expectations. - Smelting: Raw material shortages are severe in Yunnan, and the waste recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure. - Demand: Most downstream and end - users are waiting and only making small - scale purchases, with low restocking enthusiasm. The spot premium is around 400 yuan/ton, LME inventory slightly increases, and the spot premium slightly rebounds. It is recommended to wait and see or take a small - long position [3]. 3.8重点关注 There is no news to focus on today [3].