Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-23 10:28Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The price of raw sugar lacks the momentum to rebound due to the overall suppression of increased production, although the market's concerns have eased as the decline in the sugar - making ratio is relatively large. The domestic spot price continues to decline, with average trading volume, and the downstream demand is in a seasonal downturn. It is expected that the sugar sales progress will slow down later. However, the cost support for the futures price is gradually emerging, and the price is expected to fluctuate mainly [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for sugar is 5457 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 31; the main contract position is 420,072 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 2776. The number of warehouse receipts is 8196, with a month - on - month decrease of 117; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 72,687 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 1619. The total forecast of effective warehouse receipts is 0, with no month - on - month change [2]. Spot Market - The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4166 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 29; that of Thai sugar is 4223 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 29. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5282 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 37; that of Thai sugar is 5356 yuan/ton. The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5730 yuan/ton, with no change; in Nanning, it is 5750 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 20; in Liuzhou, it is 5800 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 10 [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1480 thousand hectares, with an increase of 60 thousand hectares. The planting area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, with a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production is 1116.21 million tons, with an increase of 5.49 million tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume is 811.38 million tons, with an increase of 86.92 million tons. The national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, with an increase of 7.47 percentage points. The monthly import volume of sugar is 550,000 tons, with a decrease of 280,000 tons. The total monthly sugar exports from Brazil are 324.58 million tons, with a decrease of 49.82 million tons. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1367 yuan/ton, with an increase of 4; outside the quota (50% tariff), it is 251 yuan/ton, with an increase of 12. The price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1310 yuan/ton, with an increase of 4; outside the quota (50% tariff), it is 177 yuan/ton, with an increase of 12 [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 45.41 million tons, with an increase of 4.41 million tons; the monthly output of soft drinks is 1775.8 million tons, with a decrease of 20.8 million tons [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 9.82%, with an increase of 1.97 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is also 9.82%, with an increase of 1.97 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 8.15%, with an increase of 0.01 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.17%, with a decrease of 0.01 percentage points [2]. Industry News - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in September 2025, China's refined sugar output was 539,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 35.4%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative output of refined sugar was 1.0984 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.8%. The ICE raw sugar futures closed lower on Wednesday, hitting the lowest level since June. The market expects the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2026/27 season to increase. The most actively traded March raw sugar futures on ICE fell 0.14 cents, or 0.90%, to settle at 15.10 cents per pound. According to the Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association Unica, in the second half of September 2025, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 40.86 million tons of sugarcane, a year - on - year increase of 5.18%; the sugar production was 3.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.76%, and the sugar - making ratio was 51.17%, higher than 47.73% in the same period of the previous year [2].