瑞达期货苹果产业日报-20251023

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The proportion of high - quality new - season late - maturing Fuji apples has declined significantly. It is expected that the principle of better quality commanding higher prices will gradually emerge, which is beneficial to the apple market. In the short term, it is advisable to wait and see [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 8,830 yuan/ton, and the main contract position is 4,242 hands. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 2,844 hands, with a decrease of 5,181 hands compared to the previous period [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged above 75) is 2.3 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous period. The spot price of apples in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged above 75) is 5 yuan/jin. The spot price of apples in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged above 70 semi - commercial products) is 4 yuan/jin. The spot price of apples in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged above 80 first - grade second - class fruit farmer's goods) is 3.2 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.2 yuan/jin compared to the previous period [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The annual apple production in the country is 5,128.51 million tons. The weekly average wholesale price of apples is 9.52 yuan/kg, with a decrease of 0.1 yuan/kg compared to the previous period. The weekly average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.38 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04 yuan/kg compared to the previous period [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The total national apple cold - storage inventory is 6.79 million tons, a decrease compared to the previous period. The weekly storage capacity ratio of apples in Shandong is 0.01, a decrease of 0.01 compared to the previous period. The weekly storage capacity ratio of apples in Shaanxi is 0. The monthly export volume of apples is 70,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons compared to the previous period. The monthly export value of apples is 6,973.9 million US dollars, an increase of 248,684.5 million US dollars compared to the previous period. The monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 1,837,980 million US dollars. The weekly profit of storage merchants for first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apples is - 0.3 yuan/jin [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly average wholesale price of tangerines is 7.6 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.49 yuan/kg compared to the previous period. The weekly wholesale price of bananas is 5.45 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.11 yuan/kg compared to the previous period. The weekly wholesale price of watermelons is 4.82 yuan/kg. The early - morning average daily arrival volume of trucks at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 15.6 vehicles, a decrease of 10.07 vehicles compared to the previous period. The early - morning average daily arrival volume of trucks at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 18.8 vehicles. The early - morning average daily arrival volume of trucks at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 24.8 vehicles, a decrease of 20.53 vehicles compared to the previous period [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 23.2%, a decrease of 1.14% compared to the previous period. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 23.15%, a decrease of 1.19% compared to the previous period [2] 3.7 Industry News - Affected by the news of fruit rot disease, the enthusiasm of merchants in Shaanxi for ordering apples has declined, with more waiting and seeing. The price of ordinary apple supplies is under pressure, and fruit farmers are starting to store apples. In Gansu, the price of high - quality apple supplies remains stable, and ordinary supplies are priced according to quality. In Shandong, the supply of late - maturing Fuji apples is slowly increasing, the enthusiasm of merchants for purchasing is average, and the price is basically stable. In Liaoning, the apple trading is still active, and some Shandong merchants continue to purchase. The supply of new - season late - maturing Fuji apples in the west has increased, and the price shows a significant polarization. Due to the high enthusiasm of merchants for purchasing high - quality apples and the average enthusiasm for ordinary supplies, the price of high - quality supplies in the origin is running strongly. Affected by the weather, Shandong is still in the coloring stage, and merchants have mostly transferred to the western region for purchasing. In the sales area market, the apple wholesale trading atmosphere is still average, the replenishment intensity of second - and third - level wholesalers is not strong, and the sales of high - quality supplies are slow. In addition, most producers in the origin generally report that the quality and commercial rate of new apples are lower than the same period last year, and it is expected that the proportion of high - quality apples will decrease [2]