塑料日报：震荡上行-20251023

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The cost has recently driven the plastics to rebound, but the plastics lack the momentum to rise on their own. It is expected that the plastics will mainly fluctuate weakly. [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - On October 23, the restart of the maintenance device of Inner Mongolia Baofeng's full - density line 2 drove the plastics operating rate up to about 86.5%, currently at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.56 percentage points to 44.92% month - on - month. The agricultural film has entered the peak season, but the peak season is not as good as expected. After the National Day, the stocking demand weakened, and downstream enterprises were not willing to purchase. New production capacities were put into operation, and the cost increased due to the rise in crude oil prices. Sino - US economic and trade relations and the lack of anti - involution policies in the plastics industry also affect the market. [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Quotes 3.2.1 Futures - The plastics 2601 contract reduced positions and fluctuated upward, with a minimum price of 6934 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 7013 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6999 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 1.23%. The position decreased by 18375 lots to 531489 lots. [2] 3.2.2 Spot - Most of the PE spot market rose, with the price change ranging from - 50 to + 100 yuan/ton. LLDPE was quoted at 6810 - 7470 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8930 - 9930 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7230 - 8090 yuan/ton. [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - In terms of supply, on October 23, the restart of the maintenance device of Inner Mongolia Baofeng's full - density line 2 drove the plastics operating rate up to about 86.5%, currently at a neutral level. In terms of demand, as of the week of October 17, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.56 percentage points to 44.92% month - on - month. The agricultural film entered the peak season, but the overall downstream operating rate of PE was still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. The petrochemical inventory after the National Day increased by 270,000 tons compared with that before the holiday, and decreased by 20,000 tons to 760,000 tons on Thursday, 10,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The Brent crude oil 01 contract rose to $64/barrel, and the ethylene prices in Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia remained flat month - on - month at $770/ton and $780/ton respectively. [4]