中观景气 10月第 2期：电子产业链景气延续，耐用品需求透支

Key Insights - Global AI investment continues to drive the electronic industry chain's prosperity, with memory prices continuing to rise [1] - Domestic demand remains weak, but anti-involution policies support significant improvements in coal and automotive prices [1] - The US-China tariff conflict has intensified, leading to increased export demand [1] Downstream Consumption: Weak Real Estate Sales, Stabilizing Retail Prices for Passenger Cars - Real estate sales in 30 major cities decreased by 25.0% year-on-year, with first-tier cities seeing a decline of 36.6% [7] - Retail sales of passenger cars increased by 7.0% year-on-year during October 9-12, with a slight recovery in demand post-holiday [8] Technology & Manufacturing: Continued High Prosperity in the Electronic Industry Chain, Weak Construction Demand - The price of DRAM memory chips increased by 5.6% month-on-month, driven by high demand for high-performance storage chips from AI servers [23] - Construction demand remains weak, with steel prices showing slight fluctuations [27] Upstream Resources: Significant Increase in Coal Prices, Decline in Industrial Metal Prices - Coal prices rose by 5.5% week-on-week due to supply constraints and high demand from power plants [45] - Industrial metal prices, including copper and aluminum, decreased by 1.8% and 0.3% respectively, influenced by tariff policies [47] Logistics and Human Flow: Growth in Freight Logistics, Increased Export Demand - National highway freight traffic increased by 24.7% week-on-week, driven by the upcoming e-commerce "Double Eleven" shopping festival [52] - The volume of postal express collection and delivery rose by 8.8% and 14.8% respectively [52]