Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily report on rubber, methanol, and crude oil futures, released on October 23, 2025, by Baocheng Futures [4][6][8] - The overall sentiment in the energy and chemical sector is bullish, with prices expected to oscillate and trend higher [5] Group 2: Core Views - Rubber: On Thursday, the Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume, decreasing open interest, stabilizing, and rebounding, with a slight increase. The price closed up 0.86% at 15,245 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 month spread widened to 55 yuan/ton. Stronger demand driven by better - than - expected vehicle production and sales in the domestic market is conducive to the valuation repair of the contract [6] - Methanol: On Thursday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume, decreasing open interest, oscillating, and rebounding slightly. The price closed up 1.19% at 2,292 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 month spread widened to 37 yuan/ton. Driven by the sharp rise in domestic coal futures prices, the cost - driven logic is prominent, supporting the rebound of domestic methanol futures prices, and the contract 2601 may maintain a stable and oscillating trend in the future [6] - Crude Oil: On Thursday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2512 showed a trend of decreasing volume, decreasing open interest, rising steadily, and closing sharply higher. The price closed up 4.05% at 459.7 yuan/barrel. After the correction of the previously weak macro - factors and the prominent geopolitical risks in South America, crude oil futures have regained premium support [7] Group 3: Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of October 19, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 437,500 tons, a decrease of 18,600 tons (4.07%) from the previous period. The bonded area inventory decreased by 1.70% to 69,600 tons, and the general trade inventory decreased by 4.51% to 367,900 tons. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses decreased by 2.14 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.01 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 1.97 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.21 percentage points [9] - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.07%, a week - on - week increase of 28.92 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.57 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.96%, a week - on - week increase of 22.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.98 percentage points. Most enterprises' capacity utilization rates have returned to pre - holiday levels, but the overall shipment performance varies [9] - In September 2025, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 51.2%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The new order index was 53.3%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous month, remaining in the high - prosperity range above 52% for four consecutive months. In September, China's automobile production and sales were 3.276 million and 3.226 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 17.1% and 14.9%. In the first three quarters of 2025, China's cumulative automobile production and sales were 24.333 million and 24.363 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 13.3% and 12.9% [10] - In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold 105,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 82% and a month - on - month increase of 15%, achieving six consecutive months of growth. From January to September 2025, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck market were about 821,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 20%, laying a foundation for the annual total sales target of 1.1 million vehicles [10] Methanol - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 84.38%, a week - on - week increase of 4.00%, a month - on - month increase of 4.99%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.95%. The average weekly methanol production was 1.9837 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 49,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 64,400 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 118,600 tons [11] - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 30.95%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.03%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 6.68%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.52%. The acetic acid operating rate was 71.61%, a week - on - week decrease of 10.04%. The MTBE operating rate was 54.89%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.00%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 88.36%, a week - on - week increase of 0.39 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 5.48% [11] - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 1.2589 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 70,900 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 324,600 tons. As of the week of October 16, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory was 359,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19,400 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 109,700 tons [12][13] Crude Oil - As of the week of October 10, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 418, a week - on - week decrease of 4 and a year - on - year decrease of 83. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.636 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 0.7 million barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 1.36 million barrels per day [14] - As of the week of October 10, 2025, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 424 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 3.524 million barrels and a year - on - year increase of 3.235 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 22.001 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 703,000 barrels. The U.S. strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 407.7 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 760,000 barrels. The U.S. refinery operating rate was 85.7%, a week - on - week decrease of 6.7 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 7.6 percentage points, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.0 percentage points [14] - As of September 23, 2025, the average non - commercial net long position of WTI crude oil was 102,958 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 4,249 contracts and a significant decrease of 19,105 contracts (15.65%) compared with the August average. As of October 14, 2025, the average net long position of Brent crude oil futures funds was 110,311 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 31,345 contracts and a significant decrease of 106,044 contracts (49.01%) compared with the September average [15] Group 4: Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,400 yuan/ton | +100 yuan/ton | 15,245 yuan/ton | +95 yuan/ton | - 845 yuan/ton | +5 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,310 yuan/ton | +25 yuan/ton | 2,292 yuan/ton | +31 yuan/ton | +18 yuan/ton | - 1 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 420.0 yuan/barrel | +8.0 yuan/barrel | 459.7 yuan/barrel | +12.0 yuan/barrel | - 39.7 yuan/barrel | - 4.0 yuan/barrel | [16] Group 5: Related Charts - Rubber: The report includes charts of rubber basis, 1 - 5 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [17][19][21][25][27][31] - Methanol: The report includes charts of methanol basis, 1 - 5 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [33][36][39][41][43][46] - Crude Oil: The report includes charts of crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, U.S. crude oil commercial inventory, U.S. refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [50][52][54][56][58][61]
偏多氛围主导能化震荡偏强：橡胶甲醇原油
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-10-23 10:28