Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [1][4]. Core Insights - In Q3 2025, the company experienced a revenue growth of 4%, with shipment volume increasing by 8% but average selling price (ASP) decreasing by 4%. The short-term impact on production efficiency is gradually being resolved, and while short-term profitability is under pressure, medium to long-term order certainty is strong, leading to an expected gradual recovery in profitability [1][7]. - The company has slightly adjusted its profit forecast, expecting net profits of $161 million, $179 million, and $198 million for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of -6%, 11%, and 11% respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected at 11X for 2025 and 10X for 2026 [1][7]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to be $1.578 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 2%. The operating profit is expected to be $160 million, reflecting a slight decrease of 2% compared to the previous year. Net profit is forecasted at $161 million, down 6% year-on-year [3][9]. - The company maintains a fixed dividend payout of over 70% and plans to repurchase or distribute special dividends of $60 million annually [7]. Performance Metrics - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately HKD 13.3 billion, with a current share price of HKD 15.87. The return on equity (ROE) stands at 15.8%, and the debt-to-asset ratio is 24.6% [4][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at $0.19, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 10.8 [10].
九兴控股（01836）：25Q3订单量增价减，生产效率逐步恢复正常