能源&航运四季度策略：此起彼伏，交替寻底

Report Information - Report Title: Energy & Shipping Q4 Strategy: Rising and Falling, Alternating in Search of a Bottom [2] - Author: Gaomingyu from Guotou Futures Research Institute [3] - Date: October 2025 [3] Core Viewpoints - The differentiation among industrial products remains significant, and the risk - aversion sentiment is still approaching extreme values [4] - In the energy and shipping sectors, various products face different supply - demand situations. For example, in the fuel oil market, high - sulfur fuel oil (FU) shows a "strong reality, weak expectation" pattern, while low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) is expected to have marginal improvement in demand in the medium term. In the asphalt market, the high - growth rate of shipments is hard to sustain, and the "peak season" in October is weaker than expected. In the power coal market, the supply - demand balance is affected by production, imports, and consumption. In the container shipping (European line) futures market, the supply is abundant while the demand growth may slow down in the future [61][68][93][109] Summary by Industry Energy Sector Crude Oil and Oil Products - Supply - side: OPEC+ has production quotas and targets. The production of countries like Saudi Arabia and Russia is also important factors. US shale oil production is affected by factors such as the number of active rigs and new well productivity. Additionally, Iran and Venezuela's oil exports also impact the global supply [11][22] - Demand - side: Global oil demand growth rates have been adjusted down by institutions such as IEA, DOE, and OPEC. Different oil products have different demand trends, and the demand in China and other regions also varies [27] - Inventory: Crude oil and refined oil inventories in different regions (such as the US, China, and Europe) have different trends, which affect the market supply - demand balance [39][42] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Supply: For high - sulfur fuel oil, short - term geopolitical events affect supply, while in the medium term, supply pressure is expected to increase. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the overseas market has a loose supply, and domestic production enthusiasm is weak [53][59] - Demand: High - sulfur fuel oil has strong short - term demand from shipping and feedstock, but the demand may weaken in the medium term. Low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to see marginal improvement in demand in the fourth quarter [57][59] - Strategy: Consider shorting high - sulfur cracking spreads or widening the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils [61] Asphalt - Supply - demand: The high - growth rate of asphalt shipments is difficult to maintain, and the "peak season" in October is weaker than expected. Road asphalt consumption is boosted, but waterproof asphalt consumption declines due to the real - estate market [68][70] Power Coal - Supply: Coal production in different regions (such as Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia) and imports from countries like Indonesia, Australia, and Russia affect the supply [77][83] - Demand: Power generation and industrial production are the main demand sources. The demand in the power industry and other industries shows different trends [88][89] - Inventory: Power coal inventories at ports and terminals also impact the market balance [93] Shipping Sector Container Shipping (European Line) Futures - Demand: The Asian - European container shipping trade volume increased by 10% year - on - year from January to August, with the growth rate at a 10 - year high. The demand may improve marginally in the fourth quarter, but the growth momentum may slow down next year [99][104] - Supply: New ship deliveries are keeping a fast pace, and the supply is abundant. The shipping alliance restructuring and potential over - capacity after the resumption of normal routes also put pressure on the market [109]