软商品日报-20251023

Report Investment Ratings - Cotton: No clear rating [1] - Pulp: No clear rating [1] - Sugar: No clear rating [1] - Apple: No clear rating [1] - Logs: Bullish bias [1][7] - Natural Rubber: Slightly bullish, but poor operability [1] - 20 - rubber: Slightly bullish, but poor operability [1] - Butadiene Rubber: Slightly bearish, but poor operability [1] Core Views - The overall market is affected by factors such as production, demand, inventory, and international relations. Different commodities show different trends, and investment operations should be adjusted according to specific situations [2][3][4][5] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton continued to rise, while spot prices remained stable. Xinjiang's additional - picked cotton prices were strong. As of October 15th, the national new cotton picking progress was 58.8%, and the cumulative processed lint was 98.2 tons. The off - season of the peak season continued, and new orders for pure cotton yarn mills were insufficient. The short - term rise of Zhengzhou cotton was a rebound, and it was advisable to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. Brazilian production data was bearish, and domestic Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated weakly. The market focused on the next season's production estimate. The sugar production in Guangxi in the 25/26 season was expected to be good, and sugar prices were expected to maintain a weak oscillation [3] Apple - The futures price was strong. The spot trading volume increased, and the market mainly traded the cold - storage warehousing volume. The national apple bagging volume decreased slightly year - on - year, and the initial cold - storage inventory might be higher than expected. It was advisable to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Affected by the Sino - US economic and trade consultations, the futures market sentiment improved. The global natural rubber supply entered the high - yield period, and the domestic tire start - up rate rebounded after the holiday. The natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased, while the synthetic rubber inventory increased. The strategy was to rebound after an oversell [5] Pulp - Pulp futures continued to rise, and spot prices were stable. As of October 16th, the inventory decreased slightly, and the domestic import volume increased year - on - year. The supply was relatively loose, the demand was average, and it was advisable to wait and see [6] Logs - The futures price oscillated, and the spot price was stable. The supply might remain low, the demand in the peak season supported the price, the inventory was low, and the operation idea was bullish [7]