瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20251023

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - The U.S. government shutdown has led to the non - release of the crop progress report by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, causing cautious market trading. As the U.S. corn harvest progresses, supply pressure will gradually increase, putting downward pressure on U.S. corn prices. However, the estimated lower corn yield in the U.S. this year than the previous USDA forecast provides some support for prices [3]. - In the domestic Northeast region, the accelerated harvest of new - season corn, the purchase of new grain by multiple Sinograin direct - affiliated warehouses, and the improvement of corn storage conditions have led to a slowdown in the shipment of some growers. Although deep - processing enterprises have raised quotes, the pressure of concentrated supply of new - season corn still exists, and prices fluctuate slightly. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, the remaining grain in the market is scarce, and the market supply is increasing rapidly, causing the purchase price to fluctuate weakly [3]. - For corn starch, the increasing supply of new - season corn reduces cost support, and the substitution advantage of tapioca starch squeezes market demand. However, the industry's operating rate is lower than the same period in previous years, the supply - side pressure is not large, and enterprise inventories have slightly declined. The corn starch market is generally in a bearish trend [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2140 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the 1 - 5 monthly spread is - 104 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the open interest of the active contract is 892,982 lots, up 39,613 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 74,538 lots, up 1,689 lots; the registered warehouse receipts are 61,968 lots, unchanged [2]. - Corn starch futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2450 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan; the 11 - 1 monthly spread is - 21 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the open interest of the active contract is 207,369 lots, up 5,801 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 51,697 lots, up 7,186 lots; the registered warehouse receipts are 12,504 lots, unchanged; the CS - C spread of the main contract is 344 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan [2]. - CBOT corn futures: The closing price of the active contract is 423.75 cents/bushel, up 4 cents; the total open interest is 1,543,065 contracts, up 13,269 contracts; the non - commercial net long position is - 51,186 contracts, down 15,017 contracts [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2253.33 yuan/ton, down 4.91 yuan; the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2180 yuan/ton, unchanged; the CIF price of imported corn is 1981.94 yuan/ton, down 0.33 yuan; the international freight of imported corn is 44 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main corn contract is 113.33 yuan/ton, down 11.91 yuan [2]. - Corn starch: The ex - factory quotes in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2510 yuan/ton, 2750 yuan/ton, and 2680 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged; the basis of the main corn starch contract is 84 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the spread between Shandong starch and corn is 490 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan; the spread between tapioca starch and corn starch is 299 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan; the spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 184 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Forecasted sown areas: In the U.S., it is 425.26 million hectares; in Brazil, it is 131 million hectares; in Argentina, it is 53 million hectares; in China, it is 295 million hectares; in Ukraine, it is 32 million hectares, all unchanged except for Ukraine which is up 1.5 million hectares [2]. - Forecasted yields: In the U.S., it is 36.44 million tons; in Brazil, it is 22.6 million tons; in Argentina, it is 7.5 million tons; in China, it is 44.3 million tons, all unchanged except for Brazil which is up 0.55 million tons [2]. - Corn inventories: In southern ports, it is 38.7 million tons, up 5.5 million tons; in northern ports, it is 93 million tons, down 22 million tons; the deep - processing corn inventory is 203.6 million tons, down 8.2 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Import and export: The monthly import volume of corn is 4 million tons, down 2 million tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 14,800 tons, down 1,140 tons [2]. - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2,927.2 million tons, up 99.9 million tons [2]. - Corn starch processing profits: In Shandong, it is 75 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Hebei, it is 89 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, it is 55 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Feed: The sample feed corn inventory days are 24.44 days, down 0.05 days; the deep - processing corn consumption is 122.31 million tons, up 3.04 million tons [2]. - Alcohol and starch enterprises: The alcohol enterprise operating rate is 53.19%, down 1.77%; the starch enterprise operating rate is 55.62%, down 1.12% [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Corn historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility is 8.32%, up 0.18%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.88%, up 0.06% [2]. - Corn option implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 10.28%, down 0.13%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 10.28%, down 0.13% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of October 20, the planting progress of the first - season corn in the 2025/26 season in Brazil's Paraná state was 94%, up from 90% last week [2]. - The Trump administration plans to provide a new round of aid funds to farmers affected by the trade war and bumper harvests and restart some core functions of the U.S. Department of Agriculture during the government shutdown [2].