国投期货农产品日报-20251023

Industry Investment Ratings - Beans 1: ☆☆☆, indicates a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability on the market [1] - Soybean Meal: ★★★, represents a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Soybean Oil: ★★★ [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★★★ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★★★ [1] - Corn: ★☆☆, shows a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement but poor operability on the market [1] - Live Pigs: ★★★ [1] - Eggs: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The market is highly influenced by Sino - US trade relations. Without trade improvement, the market will likely continue to fluctuate. There are many uncertainties, so it's advisable to wait and see [3] - In the long - term, it's recommended to allocate vegetable oils at low prices, but be cautious about short - term price adjustments [4] - For the rapeseed sector, pay attention to cross - competitor strategies with rapeseed products as the short side [6] - For corn, the market will likely continue to be weak at the bottom, with increased volatility [7] - For live pigs, expect a second bottom - testing in the first half of next year [8] - For eggs, the short - term is to wait and see, and a decline may occur in the medium - term [9] Summary by Related Catalogs Beans 1 - Domestic soybeans rose following the overseas market. The market is optimistic about trade negotiations. Domestic soybeans were auctioned at 3900 yuan/ton, the same as last week. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans is oscillating. Keep an eye on policy guidance [2] Soybeans & Soybean Meal - The main contract of Dalian soybean meal increased by 2.3% with 170,000 lots traded. The oil - meal ratio dropped significantly. Domestic soybean meal inventory is still high. If Sino - US trade relations deteriorate, supply may be tight in Q1 next year. The view is that without trade improvement, Dalian soybean meal will likely continue to oscillate. Wait and see in the current data vacuum period [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The oil - meal ratio dropped sharply. Palm oil enters the减产 cycle in Q4. If supply drops quickly, palm oil price will be resilient; otherwise, be cautious about price adjustments. Malaysian palm oil production is expected to increase by 10.77% from Oct 1 - 20. Expect long - term bullishness on vegetable oils, but be cautious about short - term price corrections [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed meal rose and rapeseed oil fell, underperforming their competitors. Pay attention to Sino - US trade negotiations. Australian rapeseed is being harvested, and Russian rapeseed has been launched. There is a risk of inventory accumulation for domestic rapeseed oil. Consider cross - competitor strategies with rapeseed products as the short side [6] Corn - Corn futures were slightly stronger. The "market - based purchase + policy - based procurement" system is emphasized. Northeast new corn supply is increasing, and downstream demand is just for necessity. Corn will likely continue to be weak at the bottom with increased volatility [7] Live Pigs - Live pig futures increased in positions. Spot prices rebounded slightly. The supply pressure is still high, and there may be a second bottom - testing in the first half of next year [8] Eggs - Egg futures decreased in positions by 30,000 lots and rose by over 3%. Spot prices rose in most areas. Be cautious in the short - term. In the medium - term, the industry needs to eliminate old chickens, and there is potential pressure from cold - stored eggs [9]