从“十四五”到“十五五”的新一轮五年市场择时（上篇）

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Five - Year Plan is a crucial tool for China's governance, guiding the country's economic and social development. It has evolved from a command - style plan in the planned economy era to a strategic - oriented plan in the market economy era, and has a profound impact on the capital market, especially the futures market [6][10][34]. - Understanding the Five - Year Plan is essential for investors to make forward - looking asset allocations, as it can help them identify investment opportunities and risks by providing insights into policy directions and industry trends [10]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 The Significance of the Five - Year Plan in China - Reasons to Focus on the Five - Year Plan - It is the top - level design and strategic blueprint for national development, guiding the actions of the government, market players, and the public. It also reflects the country's long - term goal of building a socialist modern country [6][9]. - It serves as the core basis for policy - making and resource allocation, influencing fiscal, monetary, industrial, and regional policies. The industries emphasized in the plan often become investment hotspots in the capital market [8][10]. - It is a barometer of the macro - economic cycle and industrial trends, indicating the direction of economic development and industrial structure adjustment [10]. - Importance of the Five - Year Plan - It promotes the modernization of the national governance system and capacity through a scientific, democratic, and legal decision - making process and a complete goal - governance loop [11][12]. - It ensures the long - term stable development of the economy and society by providing stable expectations, coordinating regional and industrial development, and helping the country cope with major risks and challenges [13]. - It has a profound impact on the capital market, especially the futures market. The specific arrangements in the plan directly affect the supply - demand pattern and price trends of relevant futures varieties and also drive institutional and product innovation in the futures market [14]. 3.2 The Formulation Process of the Five - Year Plan - General Process - From a procedural steps perspective (seven - step process): It includes pre - research and consultation, research and compilation, proposal and implementation, draft formation, review and approval, mid - term evaluation, and final evaluation [23]. - From a compilation stage perspective (four - stage model): It consists of mid - term evaluation, basic idea research, the compilation of the Party Central Committee's "Proposal", and the formal compilation of the "Outline" [23][24]. - Key Time Points for the "15th Five - Year Plan" - Pre - research and basic ideas (2023 - H1 2025): The mid - term evaluation of the "14th Five - Year Plan" was completed in 2023, and pre - research for the "15th Five - Year Plan" was carried out [27]. - Compilation of the Party Central Committee's "Proposal" (Early 2025 - October 2025): The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was held on October 20, 2025, to discuss the "Proposal" [27]. - Formal compilation of the "Outline" (November 2025 - March 2026): The State Council will form the draft of the "15th Five - Year Plan Outline" based on the "Proposal" and submit it to the National People's Congress in March 2026 for approval [27][28]. - Compilation Subjects and Decision - Making Mechanisms - Compilation Subjects: The National Development and Reform Commission plays a leading role, and other ministries and local governments are also important participants, contributing to the compilation of special plans and local plans respectively [30][31]. - Decision - Making Mechanisms: The Party Central Committee determines the core content of the plan; the State Council transforms the "Proposal" into a government work plan; the National People's Congress reviews and approves the plan to make it a legally binding national document [31][32]. 3.3 Review of Previous Five - Year Plans - Decision - Making Models of Previous Five - Year Plans - Evolution from "Plan" to "Planning": The nature of the Five - Year Plan has changed from a mandatory economic legal document in the planned economy era to a strategic and guiding development blueprint in the market economy era [33][34]. - Main Content and Tone of Previous Five - Year Plans: The content and tone of each plan are closely related to the country's strategic needs and development stage, evolving from focusing on industrialization in the early days to emphasizing high - quality development in recent years [35]. - Evolution Logic: The Five - Year Plan has shifted from micro - economic instructions to macro - strategic guidance, with the logic starting point changing from "national needs" to a combination of "market demand" and "national strategy" [36]. - Review of Policy Ideas during Previous Five - Year Plans - Evolution of Policy Ideas: The policy ideas have changed from simply pursuing economic growth speed to emphasizing development quality and efficiency, with a focus on sustainable and comprehensive development [37][38]. - Shift in Development Focus: The development focus has gradually shifted from traditional industries to strategic emerging industries and modern services, indicating a transition from factor - driven to innovation - driven economic growth [39]. - Adjustment of Development Goals: The development goals have evolved from emphasizing quantitative expansion to focusing on quality improvement, with the introduction of more comprehensive and balanced indicator systems [40][41]. - Reasons for the Change in Planning Ideas - The change is driven by factors such as the country's development stage, international environment, institutional environment, technological revolution, and the improvement of governance capacity [45]. 3.4 Review of the Capital Market Performance during Previous Five - Year Plans - Overall Impact on the Capital Market - The Five - Year Plan guides the overall market expectations at the macro - level and creates structural opportunities at the meso - level [46]. - Performance Review of the Futures Market - Overall Performance of the Nanhua Composite Index: It shows a long - term upward trend, with decreasing volatility and a rising index center. The market is more responsive to policy expectations in the early stage of the plan and focuses on goal implementation in the later stage [47][50]. - Factors Affecting Market Trends: The market is influenced by fundamental factors, policy interventions, and external factors. The index generally shows a pattern of "rising in the early stage and fluctuating in the later stage" during each plan period [48][49]. - Event - Driven Effects: The release of the Five - Year Plan has a short - term event - driven effect on the futures market, with positive market reactions around the release of the "Proposal" and the "Outline" [48][49].