Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report provides daily market analysis and trading strategies for various energy and chemical products, including crude oil, styrene, rubber, and others. Most products are in a bearish medium - term structure, with short - term trends varying. The analysis combines fundamental and technical aspects to guide trading decisions. 3. Summary by Product (1) Crude Oil - Logic: Sanctions on Russian oil companies shifted the short - term logic to geopolitical factors. After the short - term geopolitical influence is digested, the market will return to supply - demand drivers. The current rise is a rebound [2]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term decline, and the hourly - level is in a short - term rise. It broke through the short - term pressure at 447 today, but the volume shows a reduction in positions, indicating a rebound. The short - term support is at 456 [2]. - Strategy: Take profit on short positions and wait to re - enter short positions after breaking the short - term support [2]. (2) Styrene (EB) - Logic: Although the supply - demand situation has slightly improved due to reduced production from maintenance, the port inventory is still accumulating, and the seasonal inventory accumulation in January is approaching. There is a risk of price collapse, but the market has already priced in some expectations [5]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in a short - term decline. The intraday trend was volatile today, and the short - term decline structure remains unchanged. The short - term pressure is at 6570 [5]. - Strategy: Hold the remaining short positions on the hourly - level, and consider taking profit and re - shorting on rebounds. Pay attention to contract roll - over [5]. (3) Rubber - Logic: The supply in Southeast Asia is expected to increase in the fourth quarter, the cost support is weakening, and the high inventory in China is difficult to reduce [7]. - Technical Analysis: Both the daily - level and hourly - level are in a decline. There was a small rebound with reduced positions today. The short - term pressure is at 15450 [7]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the hourly - level, with a stop - profit reference of 15450 [7]. (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: The supply - demand fundamentals have little short - term contradiction. The demand recovery is mainly due to post - holiday seasonality, and the supply is expected to increase. The prices of crude oil and butadiene are the main driving factors, and the price of butadiene may decline [11]. - Technical Analysis: Both the daily - level and hourly - level are in a decline. There was a small rebound with reduced positions today. The short - term pressure is at 11300 [11]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the hourly - level, with a stop - profit reference of 11300 [11]. (5) PX - Logic: The supply - demand situation improved slightly last week, but the high - supply pattern remains. The price is mainly driven by the cost of crude oil [13]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in a short - term rise. It broke through the short - term pressure at 6460 - 6480 with reduced positions today. The support is at 6425 [13]. - Strategy: Take profit on short positions on the hourly - level [13]. (6) PTA - Logic: The supply pressure is high due to expected new production and restart of plants, and the demand is flat. The price is mainly driven by the cost of crude oil [16]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in a short - term rise. There was a small rebound with reduced positions today. The short - term support is at 4470 [16]. - Strategy: Wait and observe on the hourly - level [16]. (7) PP - Logic: The expected new production from Guangxi Petrochemical will increase the supply pressure. The downstream demand is weak during the peak season, and the overseas demand is low. The cost is under pressure due to the decline in crude oil prices [20]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in a short - term decline. There was a rebound with reduced positions today. The short - term pressure is at 6740 [20]. - Strategy: Wait and observe on the hourly - level [20]. (8) Methanol - Logic: The monthly spread structure has strengthened, indicating potential long - trading opportunities in the future. However, currently, the high domestic supply and inventory are suppressing the price. The seasonal gas - limit in Iran may bring long - trading opportunities later [22][24]. - Technical Analysis: Both the daily - level and hourly - level are in a decline. There was a rebound with reduced positions today. The short - term pressure is at 2320 [24]. - Strategy: Hold the remaining short positions on the hourly - level cautiously, with a stop - profit at 2320. Consider using methanol as a long - position in a hedging strategy after breaking through the pressure [24]. (9) PVC - Logic: The supply is high due to the "chlor - alkali balance" strategy. The domestic real - estate demand is low, and the social inventory is accumulating [27]. - Technical Analysis: Both the daily - level and hourly - level are in a decline. The intraday trend was volatile today, and the short - term decline structure remains unchanged. The short - term pressure is at 4800 [27]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the hourly - level [27]. (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: The restart of previously - shut - down plants and expected new production are increasing the supply pressure. The port inventory is starting to accumulate, and the low - inventory support is disappearing [28]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term decline, and the hourly - level is in a short - term rise. It broke through the short - term pressure at 4060 with reduced positions today. The short - term support is below 4045 [28]. - Strategy: Take profit on short positions on the hourly - level [28]. (11) Plastic - Logic: The expected new production from Guangxi Petrochemical will increase the supply pressure. The downstream demand is weak during the peak season, and the cost is under pressure due to the decline in crude oil prices [32]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term decline, and the hourly - level is in a short - term rise. It broke through the short - term pressure at 6940 with reduced positions today [32]. - Strategy: Take profit on the remaining short positions on the hourly - level [32]. (12) Soda Ash - Logic: The high - supply and high - inventory situation is intensifying. The demand from the glass industry is unlikely to improve significantly, and there is no substantial policy intervention on the supply side. The macro - environment is also bearish [34]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in a short - term decline. There was a rebound with reduced positions today, and the short - term decline structure remains unchanged. The short - term pressure is at 1260 [34]. - Strategy: Hold the remaining short positions on the hourly - level [34]. (13) Caustic Soda - Logic: The supply pressure will increase in the medium - term due to the restart of previously - shut - down plants and new production. The downstream demand from alumina is limited, and the overall demand is stable. The supply - demand situation is bearish [36]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in a short - term decline. The intraday trend was volatile today, and the short - term decline structure remains unchanged. The short - term pressure is at 2470 [36]. - Strategy: Wait and observe after taking profit before the holiday, as there is no good entry point currently [36].
制裁扰动推动原油延续反弹，等待反弹结束空单回补机会
Tian Fu Qi Huo·2025-10-23 12:11